Azernews.Az

Elnur Enveroglu

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For much of the past three decades, the South Caucasus has been defined by closed borders, frozen conflicts and missed opportunities. Today, that static picture is beginning to shift. The emerging interplay between Ankara, Yerevan and Baku suggests that the region, long treated as a geopolitical periphery, is cautiously repositioning itself as a corridor of strategic relevance, for its immediate neighbours and for Europe as a whole.

The forthcoming gathering of the European Political Community in Yerevan captures this transition in real time. Armenia’s role as host is significant, but it is the expected presence of Turkiye's Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz that marks a turning point. A visit at this level from Turkiye is unprecedented in the post-Soviet period, and it signals that Ankara is prepared to test a new approach towards a neighbour with whom it has had no formal diplomatic relations for decades.

Some might call it a gesture made in isolation. But to my thinking, it is part of a broader recalibration shaped by the aftermath of the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which altered both territorial realities and political calculations. The conflict did not resolve all disputes, but it did break the inertia that had defined the region. In its wake, a fragile but tangible process of engagement that links Ankara–Yerevan normalisation with the parallel, and more consequential, trajectory of Baku–Yerevan dialogue has emerged.

These two tracks are not separate. On the contrary, they are deeply interconnected. Any sustainable opening between Turkiye and Armenia is implicitly tied to progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This triangular dynamic is now the defining feature of regional diplomacy. It creates constraints, certainly, but also opportunities. For the first time in decades, there is a sense, however tentative, that the region is moving from confrontation towards conditional cooperation.

At the heart of this shift lies connectivity, i.e., the reopening of transport routes, the potential establishment of new trade corridors, and the gradual reintegration of regional infrastructure, which are no longer abstract ideas but policy discussions with real momentum. For landlocked Armenia, such developments offer a chance to reduce isolation. For Azerbaijan, they reinforce its role as a transit hub linking East and West. For Turkiye, they align with a broader ambition to position itself as a central node in Eurasian logistics.

What makes this moment particularly significant is its wider geopolitical context. Europe’s security architecture is under strain, reshaped by war, energy insecurity and shifting alliances. In this environment, the South Caucasus is acquiring new relevance. Routes that bypass traditional chokepoints, whether in energy or transport, are increasingly valuable. The region’s geography, once a source of division, is becoming an asset.

This is where the participation of Volodymyr Zelenskyy acquires additional meaning. Ukraine’s presence at a summit in Yerevan is more than symbolic. It underscores the extent to which the conflict with Russia has redefined Europe’s eastern dimension. Kyiv’s interest in alternative corridors, resilient supply chains and diversified partnerships intersects directly with the evolving role of the South Caucasus. In this sense, the region is no longer peripheral to European security, it is even becoming part of its connective tissue.

Turkiye’s role in this emerging landscape is both pivotal and complex. Ankara is not limited to being a participant but an active shaper of outcomes. Its engagement with Armenia, coordination with Azerbaijan, and broader diplomatic outreach reflect a strategy that combines pragmatism with ambition. Turkiye is positioning itself as politically a bridge between Europe, the Caucasus and beyond.