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Akbar Novruz

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Azerbaijan is on the cusp of a decision that could dramatically reshape regional dynamics and reverberate far beyond the South Caucasus. Baku's possible accession to the Abraham Accords—the U.S.-brokered initiative for normalizing relations between Israel and Arab nations—has sparked intense debate among diplomats, analysts, and policymakers alike. If finalized, the move would not simply be a diplomatic milestone—it would mark a fundamental transformation in the geopolitical balance of power across the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe.

The latest catalyst for speculation came from U.S. Special Representative for the Middle East, Steve Whitkoff, who told Breitbart that up to six countries—among them Azerbaijan, Armenia, Syria, and Lebanon—may join the Abraham Accords in the coming months. “My prediction is that soon we will see the potential for normalization in Lebanon and even Syria… this may also happen with Azerbaijan and Armenia,” he said, noting that the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict appears close to resolution.

Baku’s interest in closer cooperation with Israel is not new. Ties between the two countries—anchored in energy, technology, and defense—have quietly deepened over the past decade. A pivotal moment came when Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy advisor to President Ilham Aliyev, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on February 18. A follow-up visit by Netanyahu to Baku was scheduled for May 8, but was later postponed, slowing the momentum temporarily.

Now, attention is turning once again to Baku’s next move—and whether it signals a strategic reorientation toward a broader alliance involving Israel and key U.S. allies.

Why the Abraham accords matter?

Signed initially in 2020 between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and later joined by Morocco and Sudan, the Abraham Accords ushered in a new diplomatic framework in the Middle East. The agreements facilitated rapid advancements in trade, investment, military cooperation, tourism, and technology between Israel and its new Arab partners. The UAE, for example, has become Israel’s third-largest trading partner in the region, while cooperation in agri-tech, green energy, and infrastructure has flourished across signatory countries.

But the significance of the accords extends well beyond economics. They represent a pragmatic shift in Middle Eastern politics: ideology is increasingly being replaced by strategic, economic, and security interests. As U.S. influence in the region recalibrates—particularly its pivot to Asia and reduced dependency on Middle Eastern oil—regional actors are seeking new partnerships. In this context, Israel’s high-tech economy and military capabilities have made it an attractive ally.

What Azerbaijan stands to gain?

Azerbaijan’s potential accession to the Abraham Accords could unlock significant strategic benefits. As a vital energy supplier to Europe—exporting more than 12 billion cubic meters of gas to the continent in 2023—Baku is already central to EU energy security. Participation in the accords could enhance Azerbaijan’s ability to attract investment in green energy, such as the “Green Energy Corridor” project developed with Georgia, Romania, and Hungary. There is also potential for new transit routes through the Eastern Mediterranean to diversify energy exports.

Trade and investment opportunities are equally promising. In 2023, Azerbaijan’s trade turnover with Middle Eastern countries exceeded $4.5 billion. Integration into the economic framework of the Abraham Accords would grant Baku access to new financial platforms, such as the Middle East Development Fund, enabling large-scale technology and infrastructure investments.

From an innovation standpoint, partnerships with Israel and Gulf countries could accelerate Azerbaijan’s digital transformation. Joint ventures in cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, agrotechnology, and health tech are already under discussion. Participation in international tech events like GITEX and “Future Tech” underscores Baku’s ambitions to become a regional innovation hub.

Geopolitically, joining the accords would enhance Azerbaijan’s role as a strategic bridge between East and West. It would position Baku as a key player in the U.S.-supported Middle Corridor—a critical transit route connecting Europe and Asia, bypassing Russia and Iran. Washington views this as part of a larger strategy to reshape regional supply chains and reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian resources.

Additionally, deeper cooperation with Israel could strengthen Baku’s security posture. Military ties between the two nations are already substantial, and integration into the accords would formalize and expand these relationships. For Israel, Azerbaijan represents a vital ally near Iran’s northern borders, serving as a potential counterweight to Tehran’s influence in the region.

There are legal and political hurdles to overcome—most notably Amendment 907 of the 1992 “Freedom Support Act,” which restricts U.S. aid to Azerbaijan. However, if Washington is serious about Baku’s participation in the Abraham Accords, such barriers could be lifted or circumvented through diplomatic channels.

Azerbaijan has historically supported a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and maintained a cautious diplomatic tone on Middle Eastern disputes. However, like many Arab states that have joined the accords, Baku may increasingly adopt a pragmatic approach—emphasizing mutual interests while continuing to advocate for Palestinian rights in multilateral forums.

This nuanced stance mirrors the broader shift across the Middle East, where many governments now prioritize economic development and regional stability over longstanding ideological positions. While the Palestinian Authority and Hamas have condemned the Abraham Accords as a betrayal, participating states argue that engagement with Israel could lead to more meaningful support for the Palestinian cause.

Azerbaijan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords, if realized, would be more than symbolic—it would signify Baku’s evolution into a global geopolitical player, considering how much [it] has proved herself as a successful mediator . It would also reflect a broader trend in international relations, where mid-sized powers are increasingly shaping regional orders through flexible, multi-vector diplomacy.

For the United States and Israel, Azerbaijan’s participation would serve as a powerful endorsement of the Abraham Accords’ broader vision. For Baku, it offers a rare opportunity to enhance its economic growth, deepen defense ties, and assert its diplomatic influence on the world stage.

The question remains: will Azerbaijan take the final step? While no official announcement has yet been made, the direction of recent diplomatic engagements, growing strategic alignments, and shared economic interests suggest that Baku may soon redefine its place in the international order.

If that happens, the Abraham Accords may no longer be limited to the Arab world—they could become the foundation of a new, pragmatic coalition that spans three continents. And at its heart, Azerbaijan could emerge not just as a participant, but as a pivotal architect of this new geopolitical reality.