The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects economic growth in Azerbaijan as early as in 2021, Trend reports referring to a published macroeconomic forecast of the EBRD.
Azerbaijan’s economy will recover in 2021 with a 3-percent GDP growth after a short-term reduction of the same amount in 2020 due to the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) and low oil prices, said the forecast.
According to the latest edition of the EBRD Regional Economic Prospects, large assets of State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), which is approximately 90 percent of GDP, will continue cushioning the economy against the external shock.
The exchange rate has remained stable to date, while a long period of low oil prices and low global demand can lead to a serious imbalance in the economy.
Robust crisis response package put in place to protect jobs and disposable income will support the speed of recovery after a return to normality during the second half of 2020.
EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik said that as the world emerges from the crisis, it is crucial to look towards a future of cooperation and greater economic resilience.
“The crisis has been a massive hit and coming out of it will be just as challenging. This is not the time to engage in economic nationalism and protectionism, but a time to shape a better future through international commitment to free trade, climate change mitigation and economic cooperation,” she said.
The report assumes a modest impact of the crisis on the long‐term trajectory of economic output, with growth resuming towards the end of the third quarter, but potentially significant longer-term economic, political and social effects.
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