Azernews.Az

Turkey will emerge as a self-confident regional leader, with a strong military and economy in the next ten years, influential US think-tank Stratfor has said.
"We expect that trend to continue, and see Turkey emerging as the dominant regional power," the researchers concluded.
The think-tank said in a report covering the period 2010-2020 that the dynamic in the region between the Mediterranean and Iran — and even in the Caucasus and Central Asia — will be redefined by Turkey’s re-emergence.
According to Stratfor’s Decade Forecast on the Middle East, Turkey’s rapprochement with Egypt will continue in the years to come and this will open up good prospects for Ankara. It said that as Turkey rises, Ankara will need a large source of cheap labor and markets for exports. "The result will be a "coattails" effect for Egypt. With this synergetic fortification we expect not only an end to Egyptian quiescence, but increased friction between Egypt and all other regional players. In particular, Israel will be searching for the means to maintain its balance between the powerful Turkey and the re-emerging Egypt. This will shape all of its foreign — and domestic — policies."
Stratfor said that the United States, eager to withdraw from the region and content to see a Turkish-Egyptian-Israeli balance of power emerge, will try to make sure that each player is sufficiently strong to play its role in creating — while retaining its independence within — a regional equilibrium. "Beneath this, radical Islamist movements will continue to emerge — not to the interest of Turkey, Egypt or Israel, none of whom will want that complicating factor. Washington will be ceding responsibility and power in the region and withdrawing, managing the situation with weapons sales and economic incentives and penalties. For the first time since the end of World War I, the region will be developing a self-contained regional balance of power."
The report also predicted some challenges for Turkey, saying the country will feel "tremendous internal tensions" during the process of its re-emergence, as is the case for any emerging power.
"For Turkey, the relationship between the Ataturkian tradition and the Islamic tradition is the deep fault line. It could falsify this forecast by plunging the country into chaos. While that is possible, we feel that the crisis will be managed over the next decade, albeit with much pain and stress," the think-tank claimed.
The analysts concluded, however, that Turkey will command a considerable clout in the region. Normalizing relations with Armenia and settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh conflict are the main challenges for Ankara in the Caucasus. The fact that its reconciliation with Yerevan has faced uncertainty indicates that the issue is not merely Turkey and Armenia’s problem. On the other hand, Ankara tends to link the issue with Garabagh settlement, despite outside pressure, Stratfor said hinting at US calls to view the two issues as separate processes.
James Holmes, a veteran US diplomat who presides the American-Turkish Council, has said in an interview with the Turkish Hurriyet newspaper that two serious threats are on the horizon to relations between NATO allies Turkey and the United States during the period of the new Obama administration in Washington: a resolution recognizing Armenian claims on World War I-era genocide and the fallout from the Turkish prime minister’s encounter with Israeli President Shimon Peres at Davos.
Holmes said that overall he does not comprehend Washington’s policy on Ankara.
"Turkey is the U.S. partner in NATO, we have a military base in this country. Also, the economic and trade relations between the U.S. and Turkey are successfully developing. This being said, it is incomprehensible why Wahsington puts forth the ‘Armenian issue’ every time. Armenia can never contribute what Turkey has contirbuted to the U.S."
Holmes also said Turkey will never betray the interests of Azerbaijan, its ally. According to him, the two countries will have to choose a common tactic which will allow them to defend themselves against outside attacks.
According to Holmes, the style of leadership in Washington "now has changed and is quite different from the Bush style."*