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Abbas Ganbay

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The geopolitical map of the world is changing at an accelerated pace, and the attention of many forces, alliances and organisations is focused on the Turkic world and the South Caucasus.

The last European Observer Mission was carried out on January 23 2023, on the borders of Armenia, led by the President of the European Council Charles Michel. The purpose of the mission was to promote stability in Armenian territories bordering with Azerbaijan, build confidence on the ground and provide conditions conducive to efforts to normalize relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Not much time has passed, and it is as if the European Mission's observation never happened. Provocations, environmental pollution and all what heppened are quite out of sight of the EU mission.

It also shows that the European Union cannot do its job properly. For this reason, the EU mission group involved Canada in its work.

If approached to the matter from what the Russian Foreign Ministry's viewpoint we can agree that Canada's appearance in Armenia is a vivid confirmation of the fact that the EU, which has completely lost its foreign policy independence, is busy serving the interests of the US and NATO.

Russian political analyst Daria Grevtsova has commented for AZERNEWS on Canada's participation in the work of the European Union mission. She said that Canada is trying to push Russia out of the South Caucasus as it is part of the Western coalition.

"To strengthen themselves, Europe and the US have invited Canada as observers of the EU mission, and by doing so they show that they are presenting a united front and that they are in the region. Their inclusion in the region and interference in Armenia's internal affairs is the main task that the countries of Western coalition are pursuing now, and Canada supports them in this," she said.

Grevtsova also added that Canada may have neither economic nor political interests in the South Caucasus. Here, only the European Union and the Western powers are trying to show their solidarity against Russia.

"The goal is simply to unite and push Russia out of the South Caucasus and to be able to freely do what they want in the region," the political analyst stressed.

The Azerbaijani side highly appreciates the European Union's support for the establishment of peace and stability in the region and the negotiations on the peace process with Armenia. Nevertheless, it is regrettable that the High Representative of the European Union for External Relations and Security Policy, Josef Borel, in his statement of 26 July, presented the situation in the region on the basis of false propaganda and political manipulations spread by the Armenian side. This is followed by Canada's joining the European Union observer mission in Armenia, on the border with Azerbaijan.

Armenia's lies have spread like a plague around the world, and its patrons need further provocations in this conflict in order to delay the peace agreement for both sides.

At such a moment, the question arises: is the West trying to resolve the conflict, or is it just taking advantage of prolonging the conflict?

"The main task of the West is to establish all its influence in as many countries as possible, and those countries that are weak, not sovereign, with a weak government, ready for external intervention, the countries of the West actively enter these countries. Armenia is such a region now, we see that Armenia is happy that there is interference in its internal affairs, it believes that it is allegedly the support of the West, although we see that the support is only in words," the expert said.

Daria emphasized that the EU observers have done nothing for Armenia, and there are no actual results, except for the observations themselves.

"Of course, the countries of the West want to force Russia out of Armenia, to discord, and of course in general, the signing of the peace treaty is beneficial to all countries, including the West, but also, the West benefits from its non-admission, it is to their advantage, because the country that has more conflicts, the country that is the most vulnerable in terms of security, is very convenient for external intervention and establishing control over it. That's why the Western countries take advantage of it and just start actively cooperating with Armenia," she noted.

While discussing many important issues, the expert also touched on the reintegration of Armenian minorities in Karabakh into Azerbaijani society. She underlined the importance of this adding that it is the only way to a brighter future for Armenian minorities living in Azerbaijan's Karabakh. D.Grevtsova also clarified the question on Armenia's denying humanitarian aid that was agreed to be delivered from Aghdam-Khankendi road.

"First up, for Karabakh Armenians integration with Azerbaijan is of course very important and necessary for peace and development, but for Yerevan itself such integration will look like a defeat for Armenia, especially for its current authorities. Therefore, Pashinyan is trying with all his might, despite the fact that he has already suffered a defeat, and in general is not ready to accept it, is trying with all his might to delay the signing of a peace treaty and unblocking communications."

As we can see, of course, Azerbaijan could easily deliver humanitarian supplies along the Akhdam-Khankendi road, and there would be no problems for the Armenian population in Karabakh, but Armenia's desire to show that it can still resist Azerbaijan, that it is not ready to make concessions, that it is not ready to accept the fact that the Armenian minorities are already citizens of Azerbaijan, then accordingly it does everything to show its people some chance for the return of territories.

Azerbaijan sees everything and tries to solve everything diplomatically, of course, negotiations are difficult, there are contradictions, in principle for Armenia this is the only chance to continue and develop its economy and live on, and do everything to keep its people safe, otherwise Azerbaijan will use force, as they say not in a good way, but in a bad way - Armenian minorities in Karabakh will be forced to either leave or stay and take Azerbaijani citizenship.

Most likely Armenia will continue its rhetoric about recognising Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but will try to delay the signing of the peace treaty, as Pashinyan is very afraid that the revanchist forces, which are very strong in Armenia, will overthrow him from power or put him on trial after the signing of the peace treaty. As long as he has not strengthened, and has not shown his will as a real ruler, this process is delayed, but in the end, it is believed that Pashinyan will take a step towards signing a peace treaty, on the terms of Azerbaijan, because he does not need the war, he will lose it, and the chances that he will hold on to the minister's chair after the war that ended with a humiliating defear for it are minimal. Therefore, in the political game of delaying the peace treaty, Pashinyan is trying to delay the dangerous moment that may threaten him, but if he prepares his society to integrate with Azerbaijan, as he has no other way, he may be able to stay in power.

Abbas Ganbay is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @Noend33

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