Azernews.Az

By Alimat Aliyeva

The Japanese government has emphasized that much more needs to be done to prepare for a possible "megaquake" in order to reduce the feared death toll of up to 300,000 people, Azernews reports, citing foreign media.

While earthquakes are notoriously difficult to predict, a government panel raised the probability of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough off Japan's coast to 75-82 percent over the next 30 years in January. This marks a notable increase in the risk assessment.

In March, the government released an updated estimate indicating that a megaquake, followed by a tsunami, could result in as many as 298,000 deaths and cause damages amounting to as much as $2 trillion.

Back in 2014, the Central Disaster Management Council issued a preparedness plan aimed at reducing fatalities by 80 percent. However, the government has admitted that, to date, the measures in place would only reduce the death toll by approximately 20 percent, according to reports from Kyodo News. In response, a new preparedness plan was unveiled this Tuesday, outlining accelerated efforts, such as the construction of embankments, evacuation buildings, and more frequent disaster drills to improve public readiness.

“It is essential for the nation, municipalities, companies, and non-profit organizations to work together to implement measures that will save as many lives as possible,” said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during a government meeting, according to local media.

The Nankai Trough, an 800-kilometer (500-mile) undersea trench running parallel to Japan’s Pacific coastline, is the location of major tectonic activity. In this area, one tectonic plate is slowly slipping beneath another, increasing the likelihood of a catastrophic event.

Historically, megaquakes in the Nankai Trough have occurred every 100 to 200 years. The most recent major quake in the region took place in 1946.

In August 2022, the Japan Meteorological Association (JMA) issued its first advisory warning about the increased likelihood of a major earthquake in the region, although the advisory was lifted after a week. Despite these warnings, experts stress that predicting the exact timing, location, and magnitude of earthquakes remains impossible with current technology.

In recent months, concerns have been heightened by a manga comic reissued in 2021, which predicts a major disaster on July 5, 2025. This has fueled anxiety among some tourists, leading to a drop in travel from certain regions.

Hong Kong-based Greater Bay Airlines reported a reduction in flights to Japan due to a rapid decline in demand, which a local tourism official attributed to fears of an impending quake. The number of visitors from Hong Kong dropped by 11.2 percent year-on-year in May, according to Japan’s tourism office. However, the number of visitors from mainland China surged by 44.8 percent, and arrivals from South Korea increased by 11.8 percent.

“It is impossible with current science to predict earthquakes in terms of their location, time, and magnitude,” said Ryoichi Nomura, head of the JMA. “We urge the public to take appropriate precautions to prepare for earthquakes, but we also ask them not to take irrational actions driven by fear and anxiety.”