Azernews.Az

By Alimat Aliyeva

In a dramatic escalation of bilateral tensions, the Indian government has announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, declaring it will not allow “even a drop of water” to flow into Pakistan. The move comes in the wake of a recent ballistic missile test conducted by Pakistan on May 3. As part of this aggressive posture, India has also closed its ports to Pakistani vessels, Azernews reports.

Islamabad has reacted strongly, labeling the Indian decision as a “declaration of war.” Analysts warn that a water blockade could lead to a severe drought in Pakistan, where nearly 80% of agricultural land relies on irrigation from the Baglihar reservoir on the Chenab River. India is also reportedly planning to reduce the water flow from the Kishanganga reservoir, which feeds the Jhelum River—further heightening fears of a humanitarian and ecological crisis.

The Pakistani newspaper Dawn noted that, although the Indus Waters Treaty does not allow for unilateral termination or suspension, India’s decision to “effectively end” the 64-year-old agreement—brokered by the World Bank in 1960—signals a readiness to weaponize water as a geopolitical tool. The decision follows a deadly militant attack on a tourist center in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi blames on Pakistan-based groups.

This is not the first time India has hinted at exiting the treaty. After the 2016 attack on the Indian army headquarters in Uri, New Delhi began revisiting its water policy toward Pakistan. However, experts in Pakistan warn that using water as a tool of coercion will only deepen hostilities between the two nuclear-armed nations.

In a show of defiance, Pakistan successfully test-fired its Fatah surface-to-surface missile on May 5, with a range of 120 kilometers. While relatively short-ranged, the missile adds to Islamabad's growing tactical arsenal and underscores the fragile balance in South Asia.

What makes the current situation particularly volatile is the convergence of strategic, environmental, and humanitarian stakes. The Indus Waters Treaty is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world and has survived multiple wars between the two nations. Its collapse would set a dangerous precedent for transboundary water disputes globally.