Pashinyan vs. Karabakh clan, Armenia may plunge into anarchy
By Abdul Kerimkhanov
Relations between Yerevan and the illegal regime in occupied Karabakh are becoming cooler day by day.
Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan did not calculate his strength when he decided to imprison ex-President Robert Kocharian
In the face of Kocharyan, he came out against the Karabakh clan - a gangster group consisting of people, whose hands are in the blood of innocent Azerbaijanis and robbed Armenia for 20 years of economic activity in this country.
Pashinyan’s frequent visits to the occupied Karabakh even do not melt the ice between Yerevan and the puppet regime in Khankendi. The Karabakh clan very clearly rallies against the new authorities and openly contradicts Yerevan.
When previous President Serzh Sargsyan left power without resistance, Pashinyan had to immediately start taking measures to prevent the future threat, to develop a strategy, to gather around him same supporters and sensible politicians. Instead, he engaged in the arrest of Kocharian, which is just an act of revenge for the failure of opposition in 2008. Pashinyan could not calculate the consequences of certain steps, and now Robert Kocharian's case is more and more complicating his life.
Founder of the clan, ex-President Kocharyan, had too many supporters. On the eve of the trial, there was formed a Union of Kocharyan's supporters, which later attached the Prosecutor General's office. The appearance of former and current separatist leaders Bako Sahakyan and Arkady Ghukasyan in court has narrowed the room for maneuver for the new authorities.
Sahakyan and Ghukasyan made a guarantee and pledge in favor of former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan. They signed a guarantee in the courtroom and contributed 500,000 drams (a little more than $1,000), according to the Armenian media.
The appearance of separatists in the courtroom caused a stir. According to Armenian media, the number of supporters of Kocharyan doubled around the court building. It was quite expected that riots could arise in Yerevan in case of refusal to release Kocharyan.
After coming to power, Nikol Pashinyan tries to show the separatists that Yerevan continues to support them. The requirement to involve occupied Karabakh in the negotiation process is bright evidence. The Karabakh clan now seeks to seize power, and Pashinyan with his meeting passions is only an obstacle.
Pashinyan has almost lost control of the situation. The ongoing processes in Karabakh are very disadvantageous for the Yerevan authorities.
Meanwhile, Serzh Sargsyan continues travelling in the occupied Azerbaijani regions, meeting with his colleagues and giving interviews. While Sargsyan is active in the occupied territories, Pashinyan is unable to control these processes. Karabakh is a dark forest with war criminals, where a large number of weapons and shadow capital have accumulated. It is really a grey area with their dark laws as well as any separatist entity.
Kocharyan’s trial showed that these processes are gaining momentum. The confrontation between Armenia and Karabakh is growing, the gap between them is widening. Creating complexity for Kocharyan, Pashinyan faced a huge problem both with the Karabakh clan and with Russia. Armenian PM cannot openly declare a fight to the clan, as it will be perceived in the Armenian society as an extremely "unpatriotic" step.
In this situation, the only way to keep Armenia from self-destruction is to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
It is unlikely that Pashinyan wants to destroy Armenia. Despite all his shortcomings, he is the head of this country, who really understands the main threats to its future. All his statements on the Karabakh issue prove once again that for Pashinyan Karabakh is not Armenia, but only an extra headache. He knows that it is necessary to withdraw troops, return lands, negotiate with Azerbaijan, and the Karabakh criminals should be trialed not in Yerevan, but in Baku.
However, he is unable to destroy what was built by the Karabakh clan alone. Pashinyan is unlikely to find supporters inside the country because the war against the Karabakh clan will be presented by propaganda and perceived by the Armenian society as a war against "free Karabakh".
Therefore, timely establishment of relations with Baku is extremely necessary for Pashinyan to eliminate a threat of anarchy that overtakes him. For this end, he should withdraw the armed forces from Karabakh and agree with Baku’s proposal on the autonomy of Karabakh within Azerbaijan.
Armenia was once again on the verge of a "revolutionary situation" on May 20. Supporters of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the morning began to block the entrances and exits of the buildings of the capital’s courts. Pashinyan's announcement of an action to block the country's courts destabilized the situation and proved once again that both the former and current Armenian authorities are unable and are not ready to resolve issues within the legal framework.
Pashinyan uses a crowd of people as tools to solve his problems. Despite the rainy weather, civil activists blocked the buildings of the constitutional court on Baghramyan Avenue and the court of General jurisdiction, which decided to release former President Kocharian on May 18.
Оne of the protesters said that he came at the call of Nikol Pashinyan and will wait for his instructions.
Earlier, Armenian PM called on the country's citizens to block all entrances and exits of the courts of the Republic. Commenting on the court's decision to release ex-President Robert Kocharian from arrest, Pashinyan said that the second and most important stage of the revolution is maturing in the country.
Having no authority in his country, Pashinyan decided to resort to his proven method - to call people to the streets.
However, the desire of Armenians to revolutions is not surprising. Every time people go out on the streets, they hope to attain prosperity finally. For Pashinyan, it is a mean to solve his next task at the expense of protesting crowd.
After the April coup in 2018 in Yerevan and the post-revolt processes, it was quite clear that sooner or later Pashinyan would face opposition in the form of the previous authorities. The lack of political experience and talent for politics had to force him to take inadequate steps to protect his power. So, he had no choice but to announce the "second stage of the revolution".
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Abdul Kerimkhanov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @AbdulKerim94
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