Crisis Group warns against escalation of violence over Karabakh conflict
By Sara Rajabova
The international Crisis Group has recently prepared a report on the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"Confrontation, low-intensity but volatile, between Armenia and Azerbaijan has entered a period of heightened sensitivity," the report said.
According to the report, the peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh bogged down in 2011, which lead to strident rhetoric.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict emerged in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Since a lengthy war in the early 1990s that displaced over one million Azerbaijanis, Armenian armed forces have occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions.
"An immediate concern is military miscalculation, because their consequences will be quite dangerous, as the South Caucasus, a region where big powers compete for influence, is now also a major energy corridor. Vigorous international engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during coming weeks and months," the report said.
According to the authors, the strong and coordinated international pressure needed to break the diplomatic deadlock is lacking.
"There is scepticism in both capitals, as well as among third-countries, that the officially designated mediators from the OSCE Minsk Group - led by Russia, the U.S. and France - can deliver results," the report said.
Recall that peace talks, through the OSCE Minsk Group, are underway on the basis of a peace outline proposed by the Minsk Group co-chairs and dubbed the Madrid Principles. The negotiations have been largely fruitless so far.
The report authors criticized the arms supplies to the sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The report also included the recommendation for the reducing tension and settlement of the conflict.
According to the authors, diplomacy by the Minsk Group co-chairs, the European Union (EU) and others should be accompanied by international engagement highlighting the risk of miscalculations and the huge costs for both sides of resumed hostilities.
It also said intensified regular contacts as well as meetings between ministers and parliamentarians can help in this regard.
Furthermore, the report said that as a modest confidence builder, Armenia and Azerbaijan should step up efforts via the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to address prisoner of war issues.
Finally, according to the authors, Russia, which is highly influential in all aspects of the conflict, should act more decisively to broker an agreement.
The document authors believe that Moscow should announce a suspension of arms supplies to both sides. Other suppliers, including South Korea and Israel, should be encouraged to do the same, the report said.