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Akbar Novruz

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What once seemed a regional matter has now grown into a new geopolitical node connecting Eurasia’s major players. I am talking about the Zangazur Corridor (recently labelled as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity).

It is crucial that President Ilham Aliyev addressed the issue at the SCO summit. Following the U.S. confirmation that it would control the road for a "99-year period", it was expected that this topic would be discussed in China. The US presence in the region, after the trilateral meeting in Washington, focused on controlling the corridor, prompting immediate reactions from both regional countries and those with vested interests. The entire situation was brought into question. While there was an acknowledgement of the peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there was also a clear expression of opposition by Iran and Russia regarding the aforementioned issue.

Although her reactions were generally neutral regarding the overall process, it was understandable that China would be concerned about the future of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) projects, of which it is a key developer. At the SCO summit, President Aliyev not only emphasised that Azerbaijan-China relations have reached a qualitatively new stage, but he also highlighted that the Zangazur corridor is not only a significant regionally but also holds global importance. The Azerbaijani leader stated that this crucial route will serve as a key segment of both the Middle Corridor and the North-South Corridor, ultimately benefiting all neighbouring countries. This underscores Azerbaijan's commitment to enhancing transport and communication routes. This statement firmly recognises the emergence of new realities.

The South Caucasus, positioned at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, is set to significantly enhance intercontinental relations by establishing a secure ecosystem. This development guarantees limitless potential for growth and cooperation.

For Baku, the corridor consolidates its role as a logistics hub, a position that is already being strengthened through recent summits and strategic agreements. Armenia, despite earlier resistance, has also been compelled to acknowledge the inevitability of new transit routes. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the opening of transport communications on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity is under discussion, an admission that signals Yerevan’s readiness to participate in regional transit.

At the same time, Pashinyan’s reference to a new transport initiative with the United States—the “Trump Road to International Peace and Prosperity", shows Armenia’s attempt to balance its engagement. By signalling willingness to cooperate not only with Azerbaijan and Türkiye but also with Western political circles, Yerevan is seeking to hedge against over-dependence on any single bloc. His veiled remarks on the Russian-Iranian stance suggested that both Moscow and Tehran remain reluctant to accommodate Armenia’s interests, underscoring the growing complexity of the South Caucasus geopolitical puzzle.

The Armenian Prime Minister's move to "correct" the Azerbaijani President's statements appears to be a strategy to bolster his standing in domestic politics. Had he chosen to remain silent, the opposition would have criticised him for disregarding the term Zangazur corridor. By opting to respond, however, he may face the potential loss of Beijing's interest. It's unclear if Pashinyan fully grasps this, especially since he has highlighted the significance of the US agreement in China. It is important to recognise that while Azerbaijan plays a significant role in the region, Armenia holds considerable importance as well, particularly because the road runs through its territory. By addressing its political and economic isolation and establishing internal security, the Armenian government can offer future generations a chance for prosperity that the region has historically lacked for a decent amount of time. In this context, achieving sustainable security will be vital for these goals.

How about the other regional actors? How do they see it?

Türkiye's position on the Zangazur corridor is clear and assertive. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has openly described the corridor as a project that will promote peace and stability in the region. For Ankara, the corridor represents more than just an economic pathway; it is a strategic priority that strengthens its alliance with Azerbaijan. By facilitating new border crossings and trade routes, Türkiye views the corridor as a means to drive prosperity and establish a stronger South Caucasus.

The corridor has also garnered the attention of China, which sees it as potentially integral to its “Belt and Road” initiative. It offers a shorter and more secure trade route to Europe through Central Asia while bypassing Russia. Azerbaijan's support for China’s initiatives within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation further increases the corridor's significance for Beijing, making the South Caucasus a vital intersection for global trade.

Iran appears to be facing a dilemma similar to that of Russia concerning the Zangazur corridor. For many years, Iran has been a key transit hub in its region. However, once the Zangazur corridor becomes operational, Iran may find itself excluded from important transit routes. Conversely, if the corridor is aligned with the North-South corridor, there is a possibility that Iran could reap significant geoeconomic benefits from this connection.

Both countries hold their breaths, torn between potential gains and strategic losses. The broader regional effects are self-evident. The Azerbaijan-Türkiye axis is to be the transit and logistics centre of the South Caucasus. Armenia faces a decisive choice: integrate into Eurasian projects or pursue alternative Western-backed platforms. China secures a new Eurasian gateway, while Russia and Iran are caught between opportunity and apprehension.

The Zangazur corridor has thus changed from a bilateral issue to a continental vision that unifies economic thought with geopolitical planning. This transition is reshaping regional arrangements and putting the South Caucasus centre stage in Eurasia's future. Once embarked upon, the corridor would alter not only maps but also that very meaning of the region itself.