Azernews.Az

By Aynur Jafarova

The Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway is a success. All three countries [Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran] will benefit from it first because it will increase trade between them,” expert on Central Asia and Senior Correspondent at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Bruce Pannier told AzerNews on December 5.

“For example, Kazakhstan is a major grain producer supplying both Turkmenistan and Iran. So the new railway will speed those shipments along and, if Kazakhstan has enough grain, could also help raise the amount of grain Kazakhstan sells to Turkmenistan and Iran,” he said.

The Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway was commissioned by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on December 3.

Being part of the North-South international transport corridor, the railway was constructed with the assistance of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB). It is 925 kilometers in total, with 85 kilometers in Iran's territory, 700 kilometers in Turkmenistan and the remaining 140 kilometers in Kazakhstan.

Preliminary estimates show that annually 3-5 million metric tons of cargo will be transported via this route. In the long term, the transportation will increase to 10-12 million metric tons.

Pannier also said the problems between Russia and the West are already complicating Kazakhstan’s exports to Europe, which must pass through Russia.

“So, Kazakhstan is surely pleased to have a new export route that could see its products sent south, eventually to the Persian Gulf, for shipment to markets in the Gulf and further to the east,” he added.

The expert reminded that most of Kazakhstan’s main products for export are made or grown in areas east of the railway line. Western Kazakhstan, where the railway line runs, is oil and gas territory and neither Turkmenistan nor Iran needs energy exports.

“So, Kazakhstan has to connect railway lines in its south and northeast to the new railway to Iran,” he said.

Pannier went on noting that Turkmenistan is in an unenviable geographical location for exporting and importing. The country lacks communications networks such as roads and railways so a new railway line connecting it Kazakhstan and Iran is a welcome route for bringing more products and a wider variety of products into Turkmenistan.

“It should boost imports from other Gulf nations and possibly from India and even China and eastern Africa,” he said,

Touching upon Iran’s benefits, Pannier said this country has an abundance of fruits, vegetables and nuts it could sell to its northern neighbors using the new railway line.

“I mentioned that Iran could probably receive its Kazakh grain quicker now but I think Iran’s biggest immediate benefit from the new railway line is that it is another sign that international sanctions cannot totally close off Iran from international trade. So the gain is political as well as potentially commercial,” the expert stressed.

Pannier didn’t exclude the possibility of joining of new countries to this railway.

“China could gain from the railway in the short term. China continues to connect to Central Asia with new railway lines and this newest line could reduce time for shipping goods to the Persian Gulf. Longer term, China wants to build an Iran-Afghanistan-Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway line. If and when that happens China would no longer need the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran (KTI) railway but any project involving Afghanistan is risky so the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran line might be useful to China for many years to come,” he said.

Pannier believes Mongolia would be right after China in getting some benefit from the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway if Mongolia could use either Russian or Chinese railway lines from Kazakhstan.

However, the expert doesn’t see much gain for Russia from the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway.

“Any plans for increasing Russian trade with Iran would involve shipping across the Caspian Sea, thereby avoiding transit fees from third countries,” he noted. “That said, if Japan or South Korea were interested in the new route to the Persian Gulf, Russia might be persuaded to connect to the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway.”