OPEC crude oil production rose by 100,000 barrels per day in September to a one-year high of 32.78 million barrels per day (mb/d.), the International Energy Agency said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.
“Since May, OPEC output has increased by 735,000 b/d, led by the main Gulf producers and supported by Nigeria and Libya, offsetting falls in Iran and Venezuela,” said the report.
Global oil supply is growing fast; in September, world oil production, at around 100 mb/d, was 2.6 mb/d higher than a year ago, according to the IEA estimates.
This is while non-OPEC output is forecast to expand by 2.2 mb/d and 1.8 mb/d in 2018 and 2019, respectively, led by the United States, said the report.
“Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon. Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now.”
In fact, production has surged, led by the US shale revolution, and supported by big increases in Brazil, Canada and elsewhere, according to the IEA.
The report said that in future, a lot of potential supply could come to the market from places like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, if their various challenges can be overcome.
The IEA welcomes this boost to supply. “However, with Iran's exports likely to fall by significantly more than the 800,000 b/d seen so far, and the ever-present threat of supply disruptions in Libya and a collapse in Venezuela, we cannot be complacent and the market is clearly signalling its concerns that more supply might be needed.”
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