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Akbar Novruz

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Armenia’s political landscape is entering a critical phase as the country navigates the delicate process of normalising relations with Azerbaijan. Since the signing of the peace accord in Washington, Nikol Pashinyan has made bold statements and decisions aimed at positively advancing the process. Although the Azerbaijani side still hopes for some practical steps, these actions by Pashinyan should certainly be regarded as commendable.

As the parliamentary elections approach, the interplay between government initiatives, opposition dissent, and public sentiment will define both the trajectory of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and Pashinyan’s domestic standing.

Recently, Pashinyan organised a walk with residents of the village of Kirants, located on the border with Azerbaijan in the Tavush region. During this event, he emphasised recent practical measures taken to enhance security and trust along the border:

"Some time ago, Armenian and Azerbaijani border guards emerged from their trenches and openly confronted each other. During the second stage, the border guards removed their helmets and body armour. An agreement has now been reached not to store ammunition in automatic weapons."

The Prime Minister underlined that stability has been maintained in the area since the border demarcation, with no incidents occurring over the past year:

"In the near future, citizens of Azerbaijan and Armenia will be crossing the border, taking advantage of transit opportunities. We are living through historic times for the South Caucasus."

How strong is the opposition’s capacity to mobilise against Pashinyan’s peace initiatives? How is public opinion shaping perceptions of Pashinyan’s approach to normalisation with Azerbaijan? With elections roughly seven months away, could any setbacks in the process affect his electoral prospects?

Exclusively with Azernews, Armenian political scientist Ishkhan Verdiyan offered his perspective on the current political situation in Armenia:

"The current political situation in Armenia suggests that Nikol Pashinyan would have virtually no alternative in the upcoming parliamentary elections, even if they were held tomorrow. The opposition, primarily the Dashnak party, has traditionally opposed Pashinyan. Moreover, it has always fiercely opposed him, attempting to hinder and derail any process of normalising Armenian-Azerbaijani relations."

According to him, as it stands, the Armenian premier does not face any serious threats from his possible opponents:

"However, it now appears that Pashinyan has taken the initiative in this process and has no intention of giving the opposition any leeway this time. I believe it will be impossible to change his course. My confidence is based on the fact that Pashinyan truly enjoys significant support among the civilian population of Armenia. Many people are waiting for him to complete his mission, bring peace, and, as he promises, ensure prosperity for the country and its people. Therefore, Pashinyan currently faces no serious electoral opponents in the political arena. And if nothing changes, then he will most likely win the next elections."