Azernews.Az

by Alimat Aliyeva

Expectations in Germany’s export sector are declining, with the automotive industry showing a particularly negative trend, AzerNEWS reports.

According to the Ifo Institute, the index of exporters’ expectations fell from –1.2 to –5.5 points in May, marking its lowest level in more than a year.

Economic expert Timo Vollmershäuser noted that despite a temporary recovery in exports during the first quarter, the overall outlook remains uncertain. He emphasized that ongoing geopolitical tensions and global instability continue to weigh on business confidence, leaving little room for optimism.

Sector trends are developing unevenly. After four months of relatively positive signals, the automotive industry now expects a decline in exports. A similar downturn is anticipated in the metal production sector, while energy-intensive industries remain under pressure due to high costs and weak global demand.

At the same time, the electronics industry is still showing slight optimism, although it is weaker than in the previous month. Furniture manufacturers, on the other hand, are expecting modest export growth, benefiting from stable demand in certain foreign markets.

Interestingly, Germany’s economy had a relatively strong start to the year: in the first quarter, exports rose by 3.3% compared to the previous quarter, and GDP increased by 0.3%. However, analysts warn that this growth may not last.

According to the German Federal Bank, recent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East temporarily boosted industrial activity, as companies rushed to secure supplies and fulfill early demand. This led to short-term increases in orders in some sectors, but economists caution that such effects are unlikely to be sustainable in the long run.

An interesting detail is that Germany’s export-driven economy remains highly sensitive to global supply chain disruptions—meaning even small changes in shipping routes, energy prices, or international conflicts can quickly influence industrial output and trade expectations.