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Qabil Ashirov

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Political struggle over snatching the leader's post in Armenia is gradually getting harder. On September 2, the opposition held a rally in Yerevan, and speakers in the meeting called on people to overthrow Pashinyan's authority. Besides, the mayoral election in Yerevan is expected to be held in the near future, and the opposition media in Armenia writes that unlike the mayoral election of Yerevan in 2018 when Pashinyan actively supported his candidacy, this time Pashinyan looks very reluctant. The opposition media interpret it as Pashinyan's acceptance of failure. Moreover, a few days ago, Pashinyan announced that he does not recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Some believe that Pashinyan had withdrawn under the pressure of revanchist groups. Others argue that the Kocharyan-Sargsyan fraction (Garabagh clan) is getting stronger and the groups linked to them are becoming active and gaining positions. The latter substantiates their thought that although Arayik Harutyunyan was linked to the Garabagh clan, he has a weak character. Currently, the people who will replace him are distinguished by their radical positions. People like Arkady Ghukasyan and Bako Sahakyan are trying to continue the radical hard line.

Regarding these issues, Azernews also tried to learn the opinion of the head of Azerbaijan-based think tank Samir Humbatov. He noted that such a situation stemmed from the uncertainty of Armenian foreign policy. He pointed out that today, the situation in Armenia has reached such a state that even the government itself boggles in thought of whether being with Europe or Russia.

“They cannot decide whether Russia or France is more important for them. Even Pashinyan himself does not know exactly who is in his team and what direction he serves. Therefore, Pashinyan makes different statements every day, that is, sometimes he says that the relationship between Garabagh and Armenia should be severed, that Garabagh is an internal issue of Azerbaijan, etc. On the next day, he changes his mind and utters absurd and stupid ideas such as not recognizing Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Such behaviors indicate that these words do not belong to Pashinyan himself. Pashinyan is simply repeating what he is told. In a way, they suggest something to him, and based on it, Pashinyan expresses other’s opinions. From that point of view, I think that even though Russia's positions are trying to strengthen to a certain extent, a geo-political and geo-strategic war is going on in Armenia these days. This is a very serious war between the West and Russia. Therefore, it seems that Pashinyan sometimes tries to keep up with Russia and sometimes with the West, but such approaches will certainly not be of any serious benefit to the current government in Armenia,” he said.

Samir Humbatov thinks that one of the main reasons behind the further strengthening of the anti-Azerbaijani tendency both in Garabagh and in Armenia is the position of Russia. He pointed out that Russia is clearly against peace in the region and It tries to disrupt processes as much as possible.

“Russia is trying to use Armenia or the separatists in Garabagh in order to continue its presence in the region for a long time. In any case, trying to re-strengthen the Sargsyan-Kocharyan fraction is also in Russia's main plan. However, I don't think that they will be able to overthrow the current government in such a convenient way. Because Pashinyan is already trying to form an established system in Armenia, and all the steps he takes are calculated to strengthen his power. So to speak, stay in power for a long time,” he said.

Samir Humbatov emphasized that it seems Pashinyan's new plan is to take other steps to extend his power. But, of course, he tries to do this in a balanced way with Russia and the West. In other words, Pashinyan tries to satisfy the interests of both Russia and the West.

“But that doesn't work either. Because the West and Russia demand Armenia to take a stand. In any case, in the end, Garabagh definitely does not belong to Armenia. Pashinyan himself has admitted this before. But now it seems that under pressure he expresses different opinions. In any case, in any situation, he should not act like this. Because such actions are actually a serious blow to the process of peace negotiations. Azerbaijan has already restored its territorial integrity. Beyond doubt, Azerbaijan will clear Garabagh from separatist elements. However, the non-recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity may pose a serious threat to Armenia itself. Because international law also states that if one does not recognize the territorial integrity of the other country, automatically gives right to the latter one not to recognize the territorial integrity of the former one. Thus, it legitimizes the possible territorial claims of Azerbaijan against Armenia. Probably, there are people in Armenia who can understand what this can lead to,” Samir Humbatov concluded.

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Qabil Ashirov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @g_Ashirov

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