Azerbaijan may leave Europe without gas
By Seymur Aliyev
The phrase "energy security" has recently become just as
significant as political, military or any other traditional
challenges that countries are facing. The main role in the energy
security of Europe is attached to such suppliers and transit
countries as Azerbaijan and Turkey. However, no matter how
paradoxical it may sound, today Europe's energy security depends on
Europe itself and no one else.
As Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has recently said that all
efforts are directed to timely and perhaps, ahead of schedule,
ensure the expansion of the South Caucasus Pipeline, connecting us
with Georgia, and the construction of the Trans-Anatolian project
(TANAP).
The president said the goals will be achieved on time, and maybe
even earlier. He also expressed hope that there will be no
artificial obstacles to the Trans Adriatic project (TAP) because if
such obstacles appear, of course, no one wins in this case.
Today Azerbaijan, its partners on Shah Deniz (the main source of
gas supplies to Europe at this stage) and Turkey are also
successfully implementing a large part of the Southern Gas Corridor
project. The contracts worth more than $10 billion have been signed
as part of the Shah Deniz alone. The capacity of the South Caucasus
gas pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum) is being expanded. TANAP is
being built ahead of schedule.
The only "artificial obstacles", stressed by the president of
Azerbaijan, occur in Europe.
The paradox is that European countries, which are trying to reduce
dependence on Russian gas, create problems in the implementation of
the European Trans-Adriatic Pipeline project themselves. It wasn’t
so when Europe was persuading Azerbaijan to supply gas, it wasn’t
so, when the partners on Shah Deniz chose the supply route.
The EU representatives, European countries, the companies
participating in the gas pipeline project were frequently visiting
Baku. However, today, inspired by Russia’s statements, some
countries participating in TAP project started to put forward
certain conditions, to be more precisely, started plain
blackmailing.
Nevertheless, Europe forgets that Azerbaijan has been implementing
its energy strategy for many years. Baku never acts without being
sure by 100 percent, or without having a back-up plan.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s remarks also prove that if
there are any emerging problems in TAP, Azerbaijan will mainly
export its gas to the Turkish market.
Azerbaijani president said there is no concern about markets.
It means that Europe needs Azerbaijan and its gas more than
Azerbaijan needs Europe. Shah Deniz, the South Caucasus Pipeline
and TANAP are self-sustaining projects that will allow Azerbaijan
to sell its gas to Turkey and bring it to the border with
Europe.
It has long been known that Brussels has no option for
diversification other than the Southern Gas Corridor. After the
statements about the possibility of connecting Turkmen, Iraqi and
Iranian gas to this project, it is impossible to overestimate its
significance. This is where a question arises: why should the EU
play with what is inevitable?
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