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Ulviyya Poladova

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Quebec’s separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) has won the provincial election and could form a minority government, raising the prospect of a renewed push for the province’s independence from Canada.

According to The New York Times, the party won 59 of the 127 seats in the provincial legislature, falling short of a majority. This could complicate leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s pledge to hold a referendum on Quebec independence after Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.

A similar referendum is expected to take place in another Canadian province, Alberta, in two weeks.

During the election campaign, Plamondon openly advocated holding a referendum. Previous party leaders had avoided setting a specific timetable for a vote in an effort to maintain broader electoral support.

Support for Quebec independence currently stands at around 30% among residents, one of the lowest levels recorded in recent decades.

Quebec, which is about 80% French-speaking, already has significant autonomy. The province of 9.1 million collects its own income tax, has immigration policies favoring French speakers and has laws giving the French language priority over English.

Even with the PQ victory, Trump’s tariffs and 51st-state rhetoric have complicated the separatist argument by stirring Canadian nationalism and giving some French-speaking Quebecers another reason to value remaining part of Canada.

The province held sovereignty referendums in 1980 and 1995. On both occasions, voters rejected independence, although the 1995 result was extremely close, with the margin of victory for the pro-Canada camp standing at less than two percentage points.

Experts say the situation has changed since then. Quebec’s population now has, on average, higher incomes and education levels, making it less inclined to support separation from Canada.

Image: Patrick Doyle / Reuters