Azernews.Az

By Abdul Kerimkhanov

Recently, the UN published another demographic forecast, which, like the previous ones, disappointed Armenia. According to the UN forecast, the Armenian population will reduce by 900,000 people to 2 million by 2100.

The UN forecast for the Armenians themselves was not unexpected. Over the 28 years since independence, the rapid depopulation has become commonplace in the country. Despite the “velvet revolution” and the adoption of numerous state programs aimed both at stimulating fertility and preserving the population, the UN report shows that the Armenian authorities are not able to stop the negative processes in this direction.

It is impossible to stimulate the birth rate in a country ruled by populism against the background of empty refrigerators of the overwhelming majority of Armenia’s population. Pashinyan's government has been in power for more than a year, but the socio-economic situation in the country has not improved at all. There is not even any improvement in living conditions, no influx of investments, or the opening of new jobs, although this is exactly what Pashinyan promised when he started the revolution in Yerevan.

At the same time, this is not the only reason for the decline in fertility in Armenia. A decrease in population in Armenia occurs for a completely understandable reason - the aggression and the occupation of the territories of a neighboring state.

For more than two decades, Armenian society has been living under the fear of hostilities resumption with Azerbaijan, who will never put up with the occupation of its territories. Despite the fact that during the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenians with the help of external forces managed to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions, the world did not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state or part of Armenia.

The most important is that Azerbaijan has not accepted and will never accept the fact that its lands are under occupation. Therefore, Azerbaijan undertakes not only diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict but also increases military power. The Armenian society remembers the defeat in April 2016 battles, when only a small part of the Azerbaijani Army staff easily broke the notorious “Ohanyan line” and dealt a powerful blow to the Armenian army. Subsequently, the Armenian side was even forced to begin a general mobilization.

Today, the Armenian army is completely demoralized, steeped in numerous corruption schemes of the troops, in which hazing and non-manual relations flourish. The non-combat losses in this army have long surprised no one. Modern Armenian youth do not want to die or become disabled for the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, where many of them have never been. As a result, the Armenian youth prefer to pay off from the military service in order not to become a cannon fodder.

However, only a small part of Armenian conscripts can pay off for their army service. The majority of Armenian conscripts simply do not have such funds, so they prefer to leave Armenia forever. As a result, the migration of young people from Armenia continues to grow, respectively, the birth rate is rapidly decreasing. Given a lack of prospects for socio-economic development, it becomes clear that the UN experts, who prepared the demographic forecast, were certainly not mistaken about Armenia.

In the history of some countries, there are shameful moments that need to be corrected. In the history of Armenia, this disgrace is aggression against Azerbaijan and the occupation of Azerbaijani territories. It was a sneaky stab in the back of a neighboring state. Unfortunately, today`s Armenia so far does not want to correct mistakes that its former leadership made about 30 years ago.

Therefore, it more likely that the future UN demographic forecasts will also be sad for the Armenian people.