EIA changes forecast for volume of Azerbaijan's oil production in 2021

By Ayya Lmahamad

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has changed its forecast for Azerbaijan's average daily oil production for 2021.

In the report released in December, the agency decreased its forecast for Azerbaijan's daily oil production for 2021 by 10,000 barrels to 720,000 barrels.

It should be noted that according to the report published in November, the Agency forecasted daily oil production to be 730,000 barrels in 2021.

Moreover, the Agency also decreased its forecast of Azerbaijan’s daily oil production in 2020 from 710,000 barrels to 700,000 barrels.

According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report, average daily oil production in Azerbaijan was 770,000, 700,000 and 670,000 barrels in the first, second and third quarters of 2020 respectively.

In the meantime, average daily oil production is projected to be 680,000 barrels in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In April 2020, OPEC and non-OPEC countries entered into agreement on reduction of daily oil production by 9.7 million barrels in May-June and 164,000 barrels for Azerbaijan.

On July 31, the first phase of the OPEC+ agreement of April 12 to reduce daily oil production by 9.7 million barrels was completed.

In the second phase of the agreement, covering the period from August 1 to December 31, the daily production of crude oil in OPEC+ countries will be reduced by 7.7 million barrels, which is 18 percent less than in October 2018.

Additionally, at the 12th Ministerial Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, it was decided to reduce the daily production of crude oil by 7.2 million barrels in January 2021 and to regulate increase in daily production provided, that it does not exceed 0.5 million barrels, through monthly OPEC+ Ministerial Meetings. Azerbaijan’s commitment, according to the new “Declaration on Cooperation”, will be 123,000 barrels in January 2021. Thus, in January, Azerbaijan must increase daily oil production by 8,000 barrels and keep production at the level of 595,000 barrels.

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Ayya Lmahamad is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @AyyaLmahamad

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