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Qabil Ashirov

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The war triggered by Russia–Ukraine War has already reshaped the global food landscape. Before the conflict, Ukraine was widely known as one of the world’s most important agricultural exporters, often referred to as Europe’s breadbasket. The country held a crucial position in global markets for wheat, sunflower oil, and animal feed, supplying millions of tons of agricultural products to countries across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

Ukraine’s role was particularly significant in two sectors. First, the country was among the world’s largest wheat exporters, playing a central role in stabilizing global grain supply. Second, it dominated the global sunflower oil market, accounting for a large share of international exports. The war, however, disrupted production, damaged farmland, and complicated logistics through the Black Sea, dramatically reducing the country’s export capacity.

The conflict has also deeply affected Ukraine’s livestock sector. Destruction of infrastructure, loss of feed supply, and displacement of rural populations have severely undermined the country’s agricultural productivity. As a result, global markets that once relied on Ukrainian products have faced shortages and price volatility.

At the same time, sanctions imposed on Russia have added another layer of uncertainty to the global agricultural system. Russia remains one of the largest exporters of wheat and fertilizers in the world. However, sanctions and Moscow’s own export restrictions on certain agricultural commodities have complicated trade flows and raised concerns about long-term supply stability.

Against this already fragile backdrop, the possibility of a broader conflict involving Iran threatens to deepen the world’s food security challenges. Iran’s direct role in global food exports is considerably smaller than that of Ukraine or Russia. The country mainly influences niche markets such as pistachios, dates, and certain fruits rather than staple commodities like wheat or corn.

Energy prices play a fundamental role in modern agriculture. If tensions in the Middle East push up global prices for oil and natural gas, the consequences will ripple through the entire agricultural supply chain.

Natural gas, for instance, is the primary input used in the production of nitrogen fertilizers. Nitrogen fertilizers are essential for maintaining high crop yields across the world. When natural gas prices rise, fertilizer production becomes more expensive, forcing producers either to reduce output or to increase prices. For farmers, this means higher costs for one of the most critical inputs in crop production.

The energy connection does not stop there. Fuels derived from oil and gas are also essential in greenhouse agriculture, where heating and energy costs represent a significant portion of operating expenses. Rising energy prices can therefore make greenhouse production far more expensive, particularly in regions dependent on winter cultivation.

Diesel fuel, meanwhile, remains the backbone of modern farming. From plowing fields to harvesting crops, agricultural machinery relies heavily on diesel. Tractors, combines, irrigation systems, and transport vehicles all depend on this fuel. Even the supply chains that deliver animal feed, fertilizers, and seeds rely on diesel-powered transportation. As a result, higher fuel prices quickly translate into higher production costs for farmers.

In other words, wars that push up energy prices can indirectly raise the price of food. What begins as a geopolitical conflict in energy markets eventually reaches the dinner table.

For Azerbaijan, rising global food prices carry both risks and opportunities.

On the negative side, the country is not fully self-sufficient in certain agricultural commodities. Azerbaijan still imports significant quantities of products such as wheat and meat. If global food prices increase due to supply disruptions or rising production costs, domestic markets in Azerbaijan may also experience price pressures.

However, the picture is not entirely negative. Agriculture plays an important role in Azerbaijan’s non-oil economy. According to official statistics, roughly 20 percent of the country’s non-oil and non-gas exports consist of agricultural products.

In several niches, Azerbaijan holds strong positions in international markets. The country ranks second in the world in the export of persimmons, stands among the top five exporters of hazelnuts, and is also a notable supplier of tomatoes, ranking roughly around eleventh globally. In recent years, Azerbaijan has also expanded its exports of table eggs, gradually increasing both the volume of exports and the number of destination markets.

Another area where Azerbaijan has gained strategic importance is fertilizer production. Over the past decade, significant investments have been made to expand the country’s nitrogen fertilizer industry. During the pandemic period, when rising gas prices forced several fertilizer plants in Europe and other regions to suspend operations, Azerbaijan managed to increase production and exports.

Exports of nitrogen fertilizers rose sharply from about $70 million in 2020 to $118 million in 2021, and then to more than $200 million in 2022. Although logistical challenges later reduced exports to around $83 million, efforts have since been made to strengthen supply chains. The state-owned Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company has acquired several handysize cargo vessels to ensure more reliable maritime transport, allowing not only Azerbaijani fertilizers but also other regional products to reach global markets.

Taken together, the world’s food system is increasingly shaped by geopolitical shocks. The war in Ukraine disrupted grain supplies. A potential escalation around Iran could raise energy and fertilizer costs. And in the interconnected global economy, these shocks inevitably cascade through the agricultural system.

For countries like Azerbaijan, this evolving landscape presents both challenges and strategic openings—reminding us that in the modern world, the price of bread is often determined far beyond the farm.