Armenia's tantrum in Brussels: will France bring pain balm for Pashinyan in Chisinau?
After the Washington meeting, Azerbaijan-Armenia relations were discussed at a newer stage with the participation of leaders of Europe and the two countries. However, this meeting took place exactly at the level desired by Azerbaijan, that is, in the Brussels format, without the participation of France, which could definitely mar the negotiations. The results achieved in the meeting are clear, but if we take into account that such meetings have been held many times and Armenia has not kept its promise every time, then such a question arises: will the leadership of the Council of Europe be able to successfully complete the issues left unfinished in Washington - to put it more bluntly, guide Armenia to the right path on the way to negotiation? Or will Armenia still try to win some time by disrupting the game and causing provocations?
It is not by accident that the political analyst Samir Humbatov, who commented on the recent Brussels meeting in an interview for Azernews, also agreed with the abovementioned views: "According to the statements of the Foreign Ministries of Azerbaijan and Armenia, it was expected that after the meeting in Washington, there would be certain principles. Although we knew that these issues would be resolved at a meeting in Brussels. But the question was under what conditions these principles would be decided. According to our observations, despite the agreement of the Armenian side at all meetings, in the end they always violated the processes. However, at this meeting, we witnessed that Armenia accepted the conditions and general principles established by Azerbaijan".
The pundit said that although at last year's Prague meeting Armenian side confirmed to accept the principles put forward by Azerbaijan, however later it was noticed that Pashinyan and his entourage reneged, and in the worst case scenario they resorted to provocations.
In addition, according to the political analyst, the meeting held on May 14 touched on many important issues.
"First of all, as stated by President of European Council Charles Michel, both leaders adhered to the 1991 Almaty Declaration, according which the two CIS countries were to recognize each other's territorial integrity in their respective territories (Azerbaijan - 86.6 sq. km / Armenia - 29.8 sq. km) after the collapse of the Soviet Socialist Republic."
S.Humbatov added that another reason why the negotiations are in favor of Azerbaijan is Europe's dependence on Azerbaijani energy.
"Since the European Union is in a powerless position in the energy policy of Azerbaijan, they apply pressure on Armenia to agree on certain principles with Azerbaijan."
Regarding the desires of the Armenian side to achieve their goal, the expert told the following: "Even Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, the Armenian side acknowledged their failure to change the meeting in Brussels for Yerevan's favor. In other words, this is proof that the latest meetings are in favor of Azerbaijan. So, it means that in future meetings with the participation of ministers and leaders of countries, we will observe the conditions under which these processes will be decided," the pundit emphasized.
Besides, Brussels also stressed the importance of mutual agreements on the release of Azerbaijani soldiers, especially two Azerbaijani servicemen who went missing and put in prison in Armenia. In this regard, according to the Humbatov, this issue can be agreed on the 1 + 1 principle. Because after the Second Karabakh War, the sabotage-provocative groups of Armenia illegally penetrated towards Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani armed forces showed flexibility and neutralized some of them, and some were rightfully arrested.
"Although some of the arrested Armenian soldiers have been returned, there are others who are still in prison. In my opinion, if the Armenian side does not complicate the issue, the Azerbaijani side can take back our captured soldiers from Armenia based on the 1+1 format," the pundit told.
In his comment, Samir Humbatov also touched on the meeting to be held at the beginning of next month in Chisinau, the capital of Moldova, with the participation of Armenia, France and other countries. Although the participation of Azerbaijan in that meeting is not certain, the political analyst emphasized that France's participation in this meeting will not have any influence on the next Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations.
"The participation of Azerbaijan in this meeting is not completely certain. However, I can say this with certainty that even if all European countries speak on behalf of Armenia at that meeting, it will not change Azerbaijan's decisions. The European Union signed an agreement on strategic cooperation with Azerbaijan. That is, cooperation with Azerbaijan is more important for the European Union than with Armenia. For the EU, its own interests are more important than being on the side of Armenia. More important for the European Union is the process of ensuring energy security against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Therefore, I can certainly confirm that the European Union will not sever relations with Azerbaijan because of Armenia," the expert concluded.
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