By Abdul Kerimkhanov
The Statistical Committee of Armenia has published the sad macroeconomic data for January-June 2019.
From the very beginning of this year, the greatest disappointments in the economic policy of the government continued to lie in the sphere of foreign trade turnover. The turnover showed negative values even in comparison with the low base of 2018.
Thus, in January-May 2019, foreign trade turnover showed a fall of 2.6 percent, exports - of 0.9 percent and imports - of 3.4 percent.
The new indicators of January-June show that export still continues to fall, and import and foreign trade indicators stood at the level of 2018's figures.
In addition, indicators of electricity production volumes fell sharply. In January-April, the figure was 9.2 percent less than the indicator of the previous year; in January-May, the decrease was 7.4 percent, and in January-June - 5.5 percent.
It is unlikely that such a drop in the electricity production gives up hope for a future revival of industrial life in Armenia. Besides, the level of industrial inflation in January-May stopped at around 0.5 percent, and in January-June fell to 0.1 percent, which also does not contribute to the revival of the Armenian industrial complex.
As for the indicator of economic activity, it also shows a downward trend. The main drivers of the Armenian economy continue to be the service sector and domestic trade.
The first quarterly indicator for agriculture sector showed a decrease of 0.2 percent, but the data for January-June demonstrated a continuing serious crisis in the Armenian agrarian sector - 7.4 percent.
The only positive moment was observed in the construction industry, whose growth in January soared to 22.1 percent, but further indicators show a sharp slowdown. In January-April the growth fell to 10.8 percent,in January-May there was another drop - 6.1 percent, and finally, in January-June only 4.7 percent left from the construction growth recorded in January.
Inflation, which is considered an important indicator of macroeconomic stability, showed an increase of 2 percent, which is lower than the lowest threshold of the target level of 2.5 percent.
Naturally, such a structure of GDP growth in Armenia cannot suit anyone and it can lead the economy to a dead end. Thus, all the promises of the new Armenian authorities to strengthen the economy structure and give it a healthier look with an emphasis on the flourishing of the real and export-oriented sector turn out to be fantasies.
Abdul Kerimkhanov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @AbdulKerim94
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