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Tuesday November 12 2024

Will Georgian Dream's victory be major power to repel Western influence in S Caucasus? [ANALYSIS]

28 October 2024 08:30 (UTC+04:00)
Will Georgian Dream's victory be major power to repel Western influence in S Caucasus? [ANALYSIS]
Elnur Enveroglu
Elnur Enveroglu
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Despite certain tensions in the parliamentary elections in Georgia on Saturday, the high turnout in the elections demonstrated the determination and high hopes of the Georgian people. This time, the elections ended with the fight of the one against the four, and in the end, the ruling party, the Georgian Dream, swept victory with more than 54% of the votes.

From Saturday evening, the land of Kartvelians looks happy and cheerful. The victory of the ruling party was able to deal another blow against the influence of the West. The tensions in Georgia have been raising serious questions for several months now. Even a few months prior to the elections, experts raised some concerns regarding provocations in the elections saying that that could have been inevitable, but the security measures prepared in advance could minimize the unpleasant moments in the elections.

Despite all this, it was obvious that the elections were held in democratic conditions. Although the elections held under the observation of representatives from both European and regional states did not fully satisfy the questioning views, at least they were able to move forward with a significant numerical difference.

Pro-Western voters could not hide their confusion when the results became clear from the evening. Even some Western monitoring institutions began to claim that the elections were fake. The other day, a statement came from Brussels about the results of the elections. The Council of Europe believes that Georgia, under the influence of the ruling party, is completely losing its chance to join the European Union by leaving the orbit of the West. The West insists that the ruling party is pulling Georgia towards the former post-Soviet regime and leading the country to democratic backsliding.

But what does real analytics data show?

Georgia has obviously been deprived of nearly 20% of its territory since 2008. The main reason for this was the political situation in the country, the Western administration and the increase of strong anti-Russian tendencies. By taking sudden and harsh decisions, Georgia brought its relations with neighbouring Russia to an even more strained level. It came to the extent that even South Ossetia, which gained autonomy in 1922 at the request of Soviet Moscow, openly declared its will to separate from Georgia, the staunch pro-western country of its time. So, as soon as Georgia further approached Europe, it faced its first surprise. Furthermore, the 16-year-old struggle still fails to change the geostrategic realities. The European Union did not leave Georgia, but it could not give it what it wanted either. The reason was the European Union's desire to use Georgia as an advantage against Russia rather than seeing it as a sovereign state.

After the start of the war with Ukraine, the intervention of the West in Georgia began to increase. Europe and the United States knew that Georgia could be the most convenient tool to fill the gap in the South Caucasus. Because it was easy to overthrow the government from within by influencing the masses in Georgia. A large amount of funds were registered in Georgia under the name of an NGO and were spent for various purposes. The foreign agency network became such a system that its annual revenues were nearly to exceed the state budget. Alarms were sounded in the country about an attempted coup d'état. In May 2024, after Georgia passed a law on foreign agents, the situation began to change dramatically. The protests started in the country began to reveal the real causes, and it became clear that the financial resources allocated to the NGOs in the country were also aimed at fulfilling the dark plans of the West.

Sanctions – a weapon of the West against the rebels

After the adoption of the law on foreign agents, sanctions were immediately imposed by the West against representatives of the ruling party. The United States banned Bidzina Ivanishvili, his family and a number of government officials from visiting Europe and the United States. This was the softest pressure applied by the West to Georgia under the demand for democracy. However, the Georgian government, which saw the country's sovereignty in the foreground, accepted all pressures from the West for the sovereignty of its country.

What does the victory of the ruling party promise for Sakartvelo?

Although Western institutions and pro-Western voters do not want to accept the election results, the landslide victory of the ruling party in the parliamentary elections is already starting to give the first optimistic predictions about the future of the country. First of all, although Georgia did not completely break its relations with Europe, it openly declared its desire to make decisions as an independent state. As the EU and the USA are strongly prejudiced by the Russian factor, they cannot accept the concept of sovereignty and independence in the South Caucasus. But Georgia is trying to prove that it is not doomed to remain in the hands of the West and that Tbilisi has its own independent decisions regarding the partnership.

Russia is a neighbour of Azerbaijan as well as Georgia, and this neighbourhood is also developed in accordance with the interests of both countries within the framework of partnership. Georgia also agrees with this idea and does not want to limit the relations of the state within the framework of the dictates of the West.

Georgia is also a transit country through which a number of strategically important energy lines pass. Its strategic importance also serves as a guarantor of permanent peace in the South Caucasus. Events in Georgia can directly affect the neighbouring countries, and this emphasizes that the common interests of the South Caucasus countries are superior.

The victory of the ruling party in Georgia against 4 opposition parties can be marked as a phenomenal event for the country. Because with this victory, Georgia ensured its future and also overturned the West's major plan to create an outpost in the region.

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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ deputy editor-in-chief, you can follow him on @ElnurMammadli1

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