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Ulviyya Poladova

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Global onshore wind power capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while offshore wind energy projects are likely to fall short of previously anticipated growth targets due to high costs and delays.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2026 report, global installed onshore wind capacity is expected to increase 1.7-fold to 2,040 gigawatts by 2031. This represents a 40% acceleration in growth compared with the previous six-year period.

In 2025, new onshore wind capacity installations worldwide increased by 37% to approximately 150 gigawatts. This growth was largely driven by the accelerated implementation of projects in China ahead of changes to existing support mechanisms. Despite an expected slowdown in the Chinese market, annual additions are projected to remain at around 140 gigawatts.

The report identifies simplified permitting procedures and strong government support in Europe, hybrid auction mechanisms in India, and new competitive tenders in ASEAN countries as key factors driving onshore wind development.

Meanwhile, the gradual phase-out of tax incentives in the United States is weighing on the growth of the wind energy sector. In countries such as Brazil and Chile, electricity generation exceeding grid transmission capacity has led to curtailments, undermining project profitability and slowing expansion across Latin America.

As for offshore wind energy, new capacity additions between 2026 and 2031 are expected to reach a total of 117 gigawatts, nearly twice the volume recorded between 2020 and 2025.

However, this forecast is 27% lower than last year's projections. The main reasons include policy and regulatory uncertainty, persistent supply chain challenges and high financing costs.

China is expected to account for 48% of new offshore wind capacity additions by 2031. Nevertheless, the country's outlook has been revised downwards due to high project costs and declining economic attractiveness following the transition to competitive auction mechanisms.

In Europe, offshore wind development is expected to accelerate, with annual capacity additions projected to reach approximately 10 gigawatts by 2031. The United Kingdom is expected to play a leading role in this expansion.

Outside the UK, however, offshore wind forecasts for the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium have been revised downwards due to the cancellation of major projects and delays in auctions.