Pre-election situation in Armenia may spark social explosion
By Sabina Idayatova
The Armenian statistics body has released data citing an increase of the poverty rate in the country, an indicator of economic predicament which is believed to pose the threat of a social explosion.
Azerbaijani MP Aydin Mirzazade commented, "The seizure of another [country's] territory has never led to the prosperity of any state." He was referring to the hostile policy pursued in the South Caucasus region by Armenia, which has been occupying a part of neighboring Azerbaijan's territory since a brutal war about two decades ago.
According to Mirzazade, authorities in any country are to distribute incoming revenues among different groups of the population fairly, to support the poor, to regulate the social sector through taxes, social benefits, etc.
"In Armenia, however, the policy is carried out in a way that rich people make a fortune for themselves, while the poor take care of themselves. Furthermore, back-breaking military spending has led the Armenian budget to the edge of an economic abyss."
So, the closed borders with neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan, the absence of shared borders with the main partners and the occupation of Azerbaijani lands have left the Armenian economy in a predicament, Mirzazade said.
The MP believes that heavy military spending, "a raging political apparatus" and a wrong economic policy -- all of these factors damage significantly the economic and social well-being of Armenian citizens.
"The exodus of Armenian people, protesting mood in the country, and the rising demand for revision of the Karabakh issue [the long-standing conflict with Azerbaijan] are the results of the policy pursued by Yerevan," Mirzazade noted.
According to Mirzazade, the current situation in Armenia is a graphic example that aggressive policy could never help any nation to achieve prosperity.
"I think that the people who barely make ends meet are a mine of delayed-action, whose explosion will impact the history of Armenia very strongly. I think that the situation will worsen and cause turning of Armenia into either a state without population or an overall collapse of the Armenian state," the lawmaker said.
In the last three years 5 percent or about 160,000 Armenian citizens left the country, according to Armenian Report portal.
Armenia has a tiny population of less than 3.5 million.
According to the Armenian Migration Service, 2.053 million people left the country over 11 months of 2012, while 1.981 million people returned in this period. Thus, the difference between those who left and came back home made up about 72,000 people, Haykakan Zhamanak daily said.
The number of people who did not return increased by 10 percent compared with last year. With the given dynamic, it can be assumed that the number of the people who stay abroad will be 55,000 a year.
The tendency of an exodus emerged in 2008, and about 200,000 people have left the country since then in search of a new start in their lives.
Given the South Caucasus republic's small population, this is a high percentage -- a dangerous demographic situation for Armenia -- and if this trend continues, the country may soon have almost no labor force left. Around two-thirds of the migrants have reportedly gone to Russia, while the rest have moved to the U.S. or Europe.
The most intensive migration was reported to the central and southern regions of Russia, as well as to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. At least 40,000 people have left for the United States and other industrialized countries.
About 60 percent of the entire total of 8 million Armenians live outside Armenia in 60 countries, with one million in the U.S. and Russia each. There are also large Armenian communities in Georgia, France, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Argentina, and Canada.
The number of officially registered unemployed people in Armenia was 63,300 in October 2012, according to the Armenian National Statistics Service.
It said the number of the unemployed decreased by 10.3 percent compared with the same period of 2011, while the figure was only 0.3 percent in September this year.
Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Board Chairman Igor Finogenov has pointed out the negative trends in the Armenian economy at the News International Press Center in Yerevan, ARKA news agency reported.
"There is a negative trend in the development of the Armenian economy, we are observing a slowdown," Finogenov said.
According to him, it concerns in particular the foreign trade deficit, which has reached $974 million. Considering the limited direct foreign investment in 2012, this deficit remains a challenge for the authorities.
Finogenov also said it will be difficult to reimburse the shortage by drawing new loans.
He mentioned direct investments as one of the solutions to this problem, noting that almost 50 percent of foreign investments in Armenia come from Russia.
Finogenov also believes that investment flows from and to Armenia should be diversified.
The Armenian government, however, appears not to have an intention to change the situation for the sake of its people. At a meeting of Armenia's governing Republican Party last Saturday, President Serzh Sargsyan was nominated to run for another term in office at the elections scheduled for February 2012, Voice of Russia radio station reported.
Although Sargsyanpledged to make every effort to strengthen political and economic stability and seek a peaceful solution to the long-standing Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, nothing is likely to change. Sargsyan's only success before his nation is that not a patch of the occupied land has been given back to Azerbaijan, but he apparently does not care by what means he gains the so-called "achievements" and sacrifices his people's well-being for his policy.
Meanwhile, in a message to the Armenian ruling party's meeting, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said he was looking forward to a closer partnership between Russia and Armenia.
The Armenian government will apparently continue to play a servile state's role for Russia in the coming years.