Turkiye is optimistic to general elections: expert says Erdogan likely to prevail
Elnur Enveroglu
Read moreThere are less than 3 days left before the start of the general elections that will send the main opposition to history in Turkiye. Voters will head to the polls on May 14, deciding the fate of Turkiye’s democracy four months after the heaviest February 6 earthquake which resulted in an unexpected economic blow. At the same time, against the background of some emerging economic tensions, voters in Turkiye seem quite optimistic and are confident in the future under the leadership of the incumbent government.
Speaking to Azernews, Turkish professor from Kocaeli University Irfan Kaya Ülger says under the current circumstances, the anti-Erdoğan 6-party table has not gained credible status in the eyes of the electorate, despite their alliance among themselves.
The expert also touched on the current representation of political parties in the parliament adding that the major focus is on the presidential elections.
“There are no signs that any political tendency or group will form a majority in the Parliament. Political parties will be represented in the Parliament in proportion to their strength. The representation of small parties in parliament will vary depending on whether they pass the national barrier of 7%. The crucial point is the presidential elections. If one of the candidates gets 50% in the first round, the elections will be held on May 14, 2023. If this is not possible, the second round of elections will be held on May 28, 2023,” Ülger said.
According to the Turkish expert, current situation of the main opposition parties seems not so promising to be even near to the winning the elections.
“Under the current circumstances, the anti-Erdoğan 6-party table has not gained credible status in the eyes of the electorate, despite their alliance among themselves. Voters look at the opposition as a group that has come together on the basis of opposition to Erdoğan but has failed to put forward any positive project for the country. In addition, the fact that a party linked to the terrorist organization PKK supports the opposition in the presidential elections leads to the reaction of the masses,” the expert opined.
The professor also touched on aspects that can protect Erdogan's charisma. Emphasizing the rapid progress in the country, he pointed out the leaps in Turkiye's domestic and foreign policy in the last ten years.
“Despite the successive Covid-19, Ukraine war and the February 6, 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, which had a negative impact on Turkiye, Erdoğan remains the favorite. Domestically, basic infrastructure investments that have been neglected so far, the progress made in the defense industry, and his determination to protect Turkiye's rights and interests abroad are the most important components of Erdoğan's favorite status and appeal. I believe that Erdoğan will be successful in the first or second round of the elections,” the Turkish pundit underlined.
According to Irfan Kaya Ülger, although the people in Turkiye have a different approach to political parties, there is generally skepticism towards the candidates represented in the opposition. He notes that the people are wary of seeing untested candidates at the head of the state, and for this reason, they have more confidence in Erdogan's government, which has justified itself in power for a long time.
“There have been many polls on the election results. Some of these polls show the opposition bloc ahead. However, I do not think they are objective. Erdoğan is an expert in winning elections. I am of the opinion that he will influence the undecided voters at the last minute. Because there are many factors affecting the voting behavior of the people in this election. Even in regions that have been known to be CHP (RPP) voters until today, the tendencies in favor of Erdoğan are getting stronger. It is easy to react against Erdoğan. But when you make an untested person president, you are embarking on an adventure. The opposition's inability to forge a consensus in the face of huge problems, or the belief that it will have difficulties in maintaining its commitment to the announced program, is causing voters to turn back in favor of Erdoğan. This is an objective assessment. You can react, fine. But this does not give you confidence, stability and predictability. Therefore, even in unexpected segments, preferences are changing in favor of Erdoğan,” he noted.
Touching on the economy of Turkiye, Professor Ülger also talked about the future prospects of Turkiye's economy, as well as the growth of its political influence.
“Erdogan had a 2023 target. In terms of GNP and per capita income, it was envisaged that by the 100th year of the Republic, per capita income would be 25 thousand dollars. It did not happen due to various internal and external factors. We can count issues such as the influx of refugees after the Arab Spring, the fight against terrorism, the Ukrainian war, Covid-19. There is a delay in this regard, and I believe that if the government continues, this target can be achieved, albeit with a slight delay. Turkiye will continue to strengthen in the defense industry, infrastructure investments and international cooperation. The most important point is this. Under Erdoğan's leadership, Turkiye has shown great success in defending its rights and interests in the international arena.”
Prof. Irfan Kaya Ülger, who described Turkiye under the rule of the opposition, said that the country can look like a dead body in such a situation. According to him, Turkiye will only play the role of an outpost of the West.
“No country in the world can now build a plan without taking Turkiye into account. Under Erdoğan's leadership, Turkiye has become the most powerful country in its geography. As an Ottoman successor state, Turkiye cooperates with the West on the one hand, on the other hand it is an Islamic country and has strengthened the Organization of the Islamic Conference. At the same time, Turkiye acted together with the Turkic world and established the Organization of Turkic States. We can say that Turkiye's weight in the international political system has increased under Erdoğan to a degree that no one expected. If Erdoğan wins again, Turkiye's international reputation will be even stronger. If the opposition wins, a pause seems inevitable. Because they have not been able to put forward a vision other than cooperating with the West,” the pundit concluded.
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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ deputy editor-in-chief, follow him on @ElnurMammadli1
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