Azerbaijani pundit reviews pre-election situation in Armenia
By Vafa Ismayilova
As the elections draw closer in Armenia, the contradictions between the political forces, which accuse each other of corruption, bribery, appropriation of state property, and human trafficking, deepen, Azerbaijani political analyst Elchin Mirzabayli has said.
He noted that the election-related crimes, including bribery of voters, prevail among those made public by Armenia’s Investigative Committee in recent days.
"On June 11, one of ex-President Serzh Sargsyan's close associates, former Armavir mayor, was detained while handing over a bribe (9 million drams - $17,289) to the candidate for deputy from the I Have Honor electoral bloc Ruben Khlgatyan. It is reported that this money was intended for bribing voters. Today's information of the Armenian Investigative Committee says that another candidate for the deputy was detained at the moment of transferring 7,000 drams ($13.5) to voters in one of the districts of Gegharkunik region for their votes,” Mirzabayli noted.
The Armenian media write that this (unnamed) candidate represents the "Armenia" electoral bloc led by former President Robert Kocharyan. And the Armenia bloc, in turn, accused the Civil Contract party led by acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of trying to get hold of the voters by administrative measures.
At a meeting with voters in the city of Abovyan, Kocharyan's representative Vahe Hakobyan stated that "the country is teeming with internal agents, and if this goes on, the Azerbaijanis will soon be in Yerevan".
According to the forecasts of Armenian experts, Kocharyan is going to repeat the crime committed during the 2008 elections, that is to seize power by armed means in case of defeat by the vote results, Mirzabayli said.
The expert said that the results of the polls conducted in Armenia give grounds to say that any party or electoral bloc that will run in the elections will not gain even 60 percent of the votes.
According to him, it can be assumed that a coalition of several political forces will be needed to form a government.
"Some parties and electoral blocs have already expressed their position in this regard. The Prosperous Armenia Party stated that it will not enter into a coalition with any other political forces, especially with the Civil Contract Party. The same position can be traced in former Armenian President and Armenian National Congress Head Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s appeals.
Mirzabayli noted that the current situation suggests that there will be a second round of elections in Armenia. According to the Armenian constitution and the electoral, in the event of the second round of elections, new political parties and blocs may also be involved in the process, which actually means that the parliamentary elections will be held anew.
From this standpoint, the situation in Armenia gives grounds to put forward three versions in connection with the results of the upcoming elections, he said.
“The first is the violent seizure of power, the second is repeated elections, and the third is the creation of a weak coalition government by bribing a number of deputies. In all three cases, there will be no political stability in Armenia for a long time," the political expert said.
Armenia will hold the early parliamentary elections on June 20, 2021.
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