A number of key economic and financial ratios in commodity-based emerging markets (CEMs) have already returned to pre-boom levels, two years after the sudden end of the commodity boom, says Fitch Ratings in its latest Global Perspectives commentary.
According to the report, Azerbaijan has benefited most from the boom among Fitch-rated CEMs since 2003.
"Taking account of economic growth, fiscal performance and external finances since 2003, Bolivia, Peru, Azerbaijan and Cote d'Ivoire benefitted most from the boom among Fitch-rated CEMs, while Bahrain, Gabon, Venezuela and Suriname benefitted the least," the report said.
According to the report, emerging-market commodity exporters' fiscal revenue is likely to be $1.3trn lower in 2016 than in 2013.
Median government spending in CEMs has increased by about five percentage points of GDP since the mid-2000s, but it has been unchanged since 2012, Fitch said.
According to the report, in contrast, government spending in non-commodity emerging markets (NCEMs) increased by about three percentage points of GDP before 2012, and then declined by two percentage points of GDP, implying a stronger policy response even though they were not faced with the same dramatic revenue declines.
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