ECB forecasters lift 2026, 2027 inflation outlook
Headline inflation expectations for 2026 rose 0.3 points to 3.0%, according to the latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters published on Friday. Expectations for 2027 reached 2.6%, up 0.4% from previous surveys, while projections for 2028 and the longer term stayed stable at 2.0%.
These higher forecasts were mainly driven by rising energy prices and "their indirect effects."
Core inflation expectations reached 2.4% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027. Near-term economic growth forecasts were revised up, with real GDP expected to grow 1.0% in 2026, up 0.4% and 1.3% in 2027.
The unemployment rate is projected at 6.4% in 2026, up 0.1%, while wage growth is expected to hit 3.3%, up 0.1%
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