By Mirsaid Ibrahimzade
Azerbaijan’s economy keeps showing positive indicators of growth.
The real GDP growth in Azerbaijan made up 1.4 percent in 2018, says a report of Azerbaijan Chamber of Accounts on the implementation of Azerbaijan's budget for 2018.
The highest growth rates were recorded in the transport and warehousing sectors (37.4 percent), the non-oil sector (over 24 percent), trade (over 22 percent) and agriculture (over 18 percent). Tourism sphere, communications and other spheres of the economy showed growth between 10 and 13 percent.
Decrease in the construction sector by 9 percent had a noticeable impact on the GDP growth slowdown.
As for the monetary terms, the country's GDP in 2018 reached 79.8 billion manat ($46.94 billion), which was by almost 15 percent higher than forecasts. The main share of GDP accounted for the non-oil sector, 46.89 billion manats ($27,58 billion). The share of the oil sector exceeded the forecasts by 51.2 percent and amounted to 32.9 billion manats ($19.35 billion).
The share of industry in the structure of GDP was 35.3 billion manats ($20.76 billion), which exceeded the forecast figures by 45.5 percent. The share of agriculture, forestry and fisheries amounted to 4.19 billion manats ($2.46 billion) (growth of 0.5 percent), construction - 6.35 billion manats ($3.73 billion) (decrease of 14.8 percent), trade and repair of vehicles - 7.67 billion manats ($4.51 billion) (decrease of 2.6 percent).
The share of the transport and warehousing sector showed an increase by 0.8 percent and reached 5.03 billion manats ($2.95 billion). An increase in indicators is also observed in the field of information and communications, the share of which amounted to 1.24 billion manats ($0.72 billion) (growth of 7.8 percent). The share of tourism and catering sector decreased by 1.9 percent and amounted to 1.83 billion manats ($1.07 billion).
The share of the social and other sectors decreased by 3.5 percent and equaled to 11.94 billion manats ($7.02 billion).
As for current economic indicators, the GDP growth in Azerbaijan amounted to 2.2 percent in January-May 2019 compared to the corresponding period of last year.
According to the State Statistics Committee, 46 percent of GDP production accounts for industry, 9.9 percent - for trade, 6.4 percent - for transport and warehousing, 5.9 percent - for construction, 3.7 percent - for agriculture, forestry and fishing, 2.6 percent - for tourists accommodation and public catering, 1.8 percent - for information and communications, and 14.4 percent - for other spheres.
Considering the forecasts on the country’s economy in 2019, World Bank and EBRD predict approximately equal figures for GDP growth - 3.3 and 3.5 percent, respectively. Forecast figures of Fitch agency coincide with predictions of EBRD. IMF forecasts that the growth rate of the Azerbaijani economy will be 3.4 percent in 2019.
Meanwhile IMF and WB forecast 3.1 and 3.5 percent, respectively, of GDP growth in Azerbaijan in 2020, while ADB expects 2.7 percent.
Mirsaid Ibrahimzade is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @MirsaidIbrahim1
Follow us on Twitter @AzerNewsAz