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Nazrin Abdul

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In the shifting geopolitical landscape of Eurasia, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a reliable and indispensable bridge connecting East and West. Strategically located at the crossroads of major transit routes, Azerbaijan is navigating complex international dynamics with a balanced foreign policy that fosters strong ties with both China and Western powers. At the core of this strategy are energy cooperation, infrastructure integration, and geopolitical diversification.

The deepening of relations between Azerbaijan and China reached a new milestone in July 2024, when President Ilham Aliyev described the Joint Declaration on the Establishment of Strategic Partnership, signed during the 24th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, as a “historic event.” This agreement marked a clear transition from economic cooperation to a strategic partnership rooted in mutual respect, non-interference, and sovereign equality. It reflects not only a convergence of political will but also a growing alignment in geopolitical and economic interests.

Trade data confirms this trajectory: in 2024, the trade volume between Azerbaijan and China rose by 20.7%, reaching $3.74 billion, with China becoming Azerbaijan’s top source of imports. Much of this growth is attributed to Baku’s integration into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). President Aliyev has emphasized the importance of key infrastructure projects, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor), which connect China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe through Azerbaijan. With 287 block trains dispatched from China to Azerbaijan in 2024 alone—a rise of over 80%—the Middle Corridor is fast becoming a critical and secure logistics alternative in the Eurasian trade system.

As noted in a detailed report by the Italian geopolitical magazine Formiche, the Azerbaijan-China partnership is now extending beyond traditional trade and infrastructure into the domain of renewable energy —a sector that is pivotal to Azerbaijan’s long-term strategic goals.

In April 2024, the two countries signed a series of agreements targeting green energy development:

- A 100-megawatt solar power plant in Gobustan, a joint investment between the Azerbaijani Ministry of Energy and the Chinese multinational Universal.
- A 100-megawatt floating solar plant on Lake Boyukshor, led by China Datang Overseas Investment.
- A 160-megawatt solar park developed by PowerChina Resources and Socar Green, scheduled for operation in 2028.

Beyond these, a landmark memorandum of understanding was signed for the construction of a two-gigawatt offshore wind farm in the Caspian Sea—one of the most ambitious renewable projects in the region. According to Formiche, these collaborations are not limited to plant construction; they are part of a broader vision to build an integrated, high-tech energy infrastructure that would allow Azerbaijan not only to meet its domestic needs but also to become a net exporter of green electricity to Europe.

This green pivot is reinforced by earlier cooperation frameworks signed at COP29 in 2024, which included the development of research centers and capacity-building programs in renewable energy technologies.

These developments underscore the strategic importance of China in Azerbaijan’s green energy ambitions. China’s low-cost technology, turnkey project management, and financing mechanisms provide Azerbaijan with the tools needed to expand its renewable sector rapidly. But this alignment is not without risks. As Formiche cautions, such reliance may lead to long-term dependence on Chinese technology, services, and standards, particularly in complex infrastructure areas like offshore and floating solar installations, which demand specialized expertise and maintenance. This emerging technical and strategic dependency raises concerns in Western capitals. If left unchecked, it could shift Azerbaijan’s strategic orientation more firmly toward Beijing. Thus, Europe must act proactively to ensure that Azerbaijan’s green transformation remains geopolitically balanced.

Despite the growth of China-Azerbaijani relations, Azerbaijan continues to maintain robust and time-tested partnerships with the West, especially the European Union. The Southern Gas Corridor, which includes the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), is a vital artery of natural gas to Europe, reducing the continent’s dependence on Russian energy.

However, Azerbaijan’s role is evolving—from a fossil fuel supplier to a green energy hub. Through cooperation with EU countries, particularly Italy, Azerbaijan has the opportunity to diversify its partnerships in the renewable sector. As Formiche notes, Rome, with its long-standing diplomatic and energy relations with Baku, could be central in shaping a European counterbalance to China’s growing presence.

The Middle Corridor, where Azerbaijan serves as the keystone between East and West, also benefits Europe. With global attention shifting toward secure, alternative transport routes, Azerbaijan offers not just reliability, but geostrategic neutrality. This neutrality allows it to operate as a hub rather than a satellite—facilitating multilateral connectivity without being dominated by a single power.

Azerbaijan’s foreign policy today reflects a model of careful calibration: fostering deep economic ties with China, while preserving strategic depth with Europe. Its investments in both energy infrastructure and transit routes have made it a pivotal actor in Eurasian geopolitics. As Baku moves forward with its renewable energy transformation, supported heavily by Chinese capital and technology, Europe must recognize both the opportunities and the strategic stakes. Azerbaijan’s ambition to become a green electricity exporter aligns with EU energy goals—but requires greater European involvement to avoid excessive dependence on any single external actor.

In essence, Azerbaijan is not merely a bridge—it is an active architect of the corridors it connects. By reinforcing its partnerships with both East and West, Baku is crafting a role that is not only strategically central but also indispensable to the future of transcontinental cooperation.