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Elnur Enveroglu

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In recent times, the rising US and France activities in the South Caucasus, as well as the increase in their interest in the processes, have been quite tangible. Even the recent replacement of the command of the Russian peacekeeping forces temporarily stationed in Karabakh has led to an increase in the US pressure on Armenia to sign a peace treaty.

In fact, one of the main reasons for this is related to the policy of the Azerbaijani government aimed at completely eliminating the realities created by the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict. The point is that while the Azerbaijani side has fully and honestly complied with the conditions of the tripartite Moscow declaration reached in November 2020 with the Russian mediation, the Armenian authorities have not fully fulfilled their obligations under the terms of that approval until now. In other words, it must be admitted that the military units belonging to Armenia have not been fully removed from the territory of Azerbaijan and they have not been disarmed; although Armenia declares that the illegal military formations in Karabakh do not belong to it."

Political analyst Elshan Manafov told this in his comment for Azernews. According to him, on the contrary, instead of fulfilling its obligations, Armenia is intensifying provocations in Karabakh.

"The fact that the Azerbaijani servicemen died in the mines planted by the Armenians in the vicinity of Shusha in recent weeks shows that the Armenian side is continuing its provocations aimed at Azerbaijan in our region. This is a factor that does not correspond to the content of its obligations. That is, the Armenian side shows a different position in the negotiations with Azerbaijan," Manafov said.

Speaking about the growing interest of the USA and France in the processes in the region, the expert said that the issue is also related to the elections to be held in Turkiye.

"Regarding the dynamism in the US and French officials' activities, I can say that until the elections to be held in Turkiye, the United States and France want to strengthen the pressure on Azerbaijan in a certain way and at the same time prevent the pressure of the Azerbaijani side against Armenia."

Elshan Manafov also clarified the importance of the elections in Turkiye for the Pashinyan government. He said that at such a moment, Pashinyan resorted to various maneuvers to gain time.

"Another significance of the elections in Turkiye is that if Erdogan wins the elections again, Turkiye's pressure on Armenia will increase. At the same time, the West is also in a hurry and wants to build its own satellite in Yerevan in the period before the elections. The West also wants to insure the Armenian government with this. At least the West knows that Azerbaijan's possible increased pressure on Armenia does not exclude military operations.
Let me add that one of the concerns of the Pashinyan government today is the victory of opposition representatives in Turkiye. In this case, Pashinyan hopes that if the opposition after elections comes to power, it will show a different attitude to the Armenian conflict. On the other hand, Pashinyan is waiting for the end of the conflict in Ukraine. Because he knows that the West will not be able to focus all its attention on the South Caucasus until the conflict in Ukraine ends. For this reason, I must mention that Pashinyan wants to gain time in the current situation and even hopes for the results of the elections to be held in Russia and the United States next year," the expert emphasized.

Elshan Manafov added that another reason for the West's growing interest in the region is the Russian factor.

"The main problem that seriously worries France and the United States within the processes in the South Caucasus is the recently growing tension in Russian-Armenian relations. This tension gives rise to the opinion that Russia has a plan of measures to replace the incumbent government in Armenia, which is opposed to Russia's geopolitical interests in the region, with a government that meets Russia's interests. Of course, the will of the people is taken into account here by Russia," the expert stressed.

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