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Ulviyya Poladova

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A new report by the United Nations Development Programme warns that the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict involving Iran could drive more than 32 million people worldwide into poverty, with developing nations expected to bear the heaviest burden, AzerNEWS reports.

The analysis highlights how the consequences of the war extend far beyond the immediate conflict zone, creating widespread economic instability across the globe. Countries already struggling with limited financial resources are particularly vulnerable to rising costs and slowing growth.

While the most immediate damage is felt in countries directly involved in the conflict, the report emphasizes that its effects extend far beyond the region. Nations heavily reliant on imported energy, especially in parts of Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Gulf, and Small Island Developing States, are facing rising fuel and food costs.

Using advanced modeling from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), the UNDP assessed various scenarios-from short-term shocks to prolonged disruptions lasting up to eight months. In the worst-case scenario, an additional 32 million people could fall into poverty worldwide.

"War is development in reverse. Conflict can undo in weeks what countries have built over years," said UNDP Administrator and UN Under-Secretary-General Alexander De Croo. "This new analysis shows that the shock of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is not limited to the countries directly affected, but falls disproportionately on those with the least fiscal room to absorb higher energy and food prices. For these countries, the crisis forces impossible trade-offs between stabilizing prices today and funding health, education, and jobs tomorrow. That is unacceptable, and it is preventable. Early policy action matters."

Credit: UNDP