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Akbar Novruz

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As is known, relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have been particularly tense for several months, especially in the past month. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also touched the issue at the Shusha Global Media Forum and his comments indicate the beginning of a new phase in relations between the two countries, which is justified. In response to one of the participants' questions, the President said that Azerbaijan plans to sue Russia over the AZAL incidents in an international court.

Moscow has traditionally been very cautious with Azerbaijan. However, recently, it has become the primary source of tension in Azerbaijan-Russia relations. This tension mainly stems from the disruption of both global and regional strategic stability. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's independent foreign policy now conflicts with Russia's geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus. The Kremlin aims to maintain influence over all post-Soviet republics without exception.

This indeed highlights the severity of the crisis between Azerbaijan and Russia. Initially, Azerbaijan chose not to escalate the situation to the international stage. Moscow barred the CIS Executive Committee from investigating the incident and did not permit US and EU involvement, keeping discussions limited to Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This should have been recognized by officials in the Kremlin. According to ICAO regulations, a final report must be released within a year. If a resolution is not achieved, the parties can take legal action, which is precisely what Baku intends to do, signaling to Moscow that there is still time to act.

The incident involving the downed aircraft, along with Russia's insufficient response to Azerbaijan, form the core of the ongoing crisis, while other issues have arisen as a result.

While Moscow has taken some steps and shown some signs of engagement, these gestures were not focused on the incident involving the plane; the actions were misaligned with Azerbaijan’s concerns.

Additionally, a representative of President Aliyev engaged in discussions in Moscow in April, and the Kremlin was aware of Azerbaijan's expectations. Yet, no action has been taken, so far. In retaliation, President Aliyev's absence from the May 9 parade was significant, though special forces were present, indicating Azerbaijan did not forget its role in the Great Patriotic War.

President Aliyev has shouldered the full weight of the strained relations with Russia, openly stated his expectations, and made efforts to improve the situation. Subsequently, escalating events like those in Yekaterinburg began to radiate tensions throughout the entire relational framework. Messages from the Kremlin via the Minister of Emergency Situations went unanswered because they did not pertain to the plane crash.

In the past, Russia used influence over Azerbaijan primarily through Armenia and Iran. With the resolution of the Garabagh conflict, these threats have diminished considerably. An additional challenge was Russia's support for separatist movements in Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan also opposed. Although there is talk of deporting Azerbaijanis in Russia, this does not seem likely to be effective. Currently, Russia lacks significant mechanisms to influence Azerbaijan.

For relations to improve, Russia must acknowledge its responsibility for the incident, provide compensation, and issue an apology. Without these steps, future crises are likely unavoidable.

While the situation is trending towards escalation, there remains an opportunity for de-escalation. The Kremlin knows the necessary steps to take, and Baku is poised for either outcome, traditionally favoring a constructive approach given its commitment to maintaining principled relations.