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Elnur Enveroglu

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On April 5, Armenia's participation in the tripartite meeting with the United States and the European Union shed some light on a number of issues regionally. The first of these is that Armenia is completely isolated, falling under the umbrella of the West in the South Caucasus.

Armenia, which came out of the Second Garabagh War with a heavy defeat, sees the Kremlin as the main cause of this defeat and believes that it could have been otherwise possible for Garabagh to remain under the occupation of Yerevan. However, the rapid change in the geopolitical situation was no longer dependent on the steps taken by Russia or the West, where Armenia took refuge. The momentum of the liberation of Garabagh and the ending of Armenia's aggression over the territories of Azerbaijan was the right time for it.

Now, Armenia thinks that everything will be more comfortable and promising for the country from now on, following its full submission to the EU. Besides, Yerevan, which feels like a fairy tale in the Western League, is still hoping for the return of Garabagh, as well as the protection of the four occupied villages. However, the West's open relations with Azerbaijan do not indicate this. In any case, both the European Union and the United States think that it is pointless to return to the issue of territorial division, i.e., the border demarcation and delimitation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Because every party except Yerevan knows that achieving the complete separation of Armenia from Russia is the only goal for the West.

As for the West uniting with Armenia and exerting any pressure on Azerbaijan, this does not reflect reality at all. Because it would be an extremely weak policy for the West to ally with a weak state like Armenia and threaten a state with wide opportunities like Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus.

When Azerbaijan expressed its concern about the April 5 meeting, the West reacted sufficiently and did not leave Azerbaijan's questions unanswered. This was a diplomatic gesture that reflected the West's reckoning with Azerbaijan. Although the participation of Azerbaijan in this meeting is important, US State Department Secretary Antony Blinken personally called President Ilham Aliyev by phone and informed Azerbaijan in advance about the objectives of the meeting.

Speaking with Blinken, the President of Azerbaijan expressed his agreement with the provisions of the statement agreed upon at the Prague meeting in 2022 and noted that the false statements made by France and other parties about Azerbaijan only serve to exacerbate tensions in the South Caucasus.

The fact that the President of Azerbaijan touched on the same issue in his meeting with Mevlud Çavusolğlu, a member of the Turkish Grand National Assembly and the head of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly delegation, and emphasised that the tripartite meeting on April 5 is a policy aimed specifically at Azerbaijan, proved that the West acts by double standards.

Of course, both the West and the European Union have made unfair accusations against Azerbaijan. For example, the PACE depriving the Azerbaijani delegation of the right to vote, France calling Azerbaijan an aggressor and claiming that it is allegedly inciting an attack against Armenia, as well as the biased actions of the European Parliament and the Council of Europe against Azerbaijan since September 13, make the future of this meeting clearly express its main direction.

In addition, the dullness of the meeting and the fact that it did not create agitation as presented by Armenia serve to conceal the fact that the West's explanation to Azerbaijan is untrue. The US and the EU wanted to assure Azerbaijan that the measures planned for Armenia were not directed against Azerbaijan. But there are serious grounds for not satisfying Azerbaijan with these claims. Although today the West is conducting secret talks with Armenia in this meeting, the real results of this will begin to be revealed after some time, along with their adverse effects.

The West is trying to re-experience the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that divided Europe in 1938 and thinks that the secret meeting and negotiations with Armenia without the participation of Azerbaijan can change something in the South Caucasus. However, the West has forgotten one important point, that the geopolitical situation they thought was the same as in the past is left behind.

The influence of President Ilham Aliyev and his ability to influence the process can now decisively prevent the intervention of foreign forces in the region. This undoubtedly serves to protect Azerbaijan's national interests and position with determination and principle. Armenia's plans to create tension in the region by uniting with the West or other forces will no longer have any influence.

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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ Deputy Editor-in-Chief; follow him on @ElnurMammadli1

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