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Nazrin Abdul

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The South Caucasus is witnessing a potential historic shift. After decades of frozen relations and geopolitical tension, recent diplomatic engagements between Azerbaijan and Armenia, notably their meeting in Abu Dhabi, signal a possible breakthrough. Central to this evolving landscape is the proposed opening of the Zangazur Corridor, a transit route that would reconnect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave and reshape regional dynamics. To better understand the implications, we spoke with British geopolitical expert Neil Watson, who provided an in-depth analysis of the corridor’s potential impact on Azerbaijan, regional trade, and the broader geopolitical balance.

Q1: The Zangazur Corridor promises to reconnect Azerbaijan proper with Nakhchivan for the first time since the Soviet era. How significant is this for Azerbaijan, and what wider effects might it have on the region?

Neil Watson:
At first, if the Zangazur Corridor opens, it will reconnect mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan for the first time since the Soviet period. This would bring strategic cohesion as Azerbaijan would gain uninterrupted access to Nakhchivan, strengthening national unity and enabling freer movement of goods, services, and people. It would also provide economic benefits, as improved connectivity would facilitate trade and infrastructure development in the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, boosting investment, tourism, and energy transit. Another important aspect is regional integration at a point when the South Caucasus could emerge as an independent and homogeneous entity on the world stage. The corridor would enhance Azerbaijan’s role as a transit country in Eurasia, integrating it more deeply into regional logistics and transport projects, including the Middle Corridor. It would also facilitate geopolitical leverage: A functional corridor would negate Armenian control over regional transit and increase Azerbaijan’s strategic options regarding Türkiye and Central Asia.

Watson’s insights underscore that the corridor is far more than a mere transport route. It symbolises national reunification and serves as a catalyst for economic modernisation in Azerbaijan’s western regions. Moreover, it could redefine Azerbaijan’s position as a key Eurasian transit hub, creating strategic ripple effects across logistics and energy corridors stretching from Europe to Asia.

Q2: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has highlighted the corridor’s strategic importance, especially as a complement to the Middle Corridor that links Türkiye, Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and China. How do you evaluate Erdogan’s perspective on the corridor’s role in regional trade and logistics?

Neil Watson:
President Erdogan’s emphasis on the Zangazur Corridor as a complement to the Middle Corridor is well-founded. It will facilitate trade diversification by enabling smoother East-West trade through the South Caucasus. In fact, the corridor would offer an alternative to northern routes via Russia or southern routes via Iran and the Persian Gulf. It would also enhance Turkish export efficiency: Turkish goods could flow more efficiently to Central Asia and China without passing through more expensive or politically sensitive routes. It would also shorten delivery time and reduce transport costs. Furthermore, it would strengthen the Middle Corridor. The Zangazur link strengthens the weakest link in this chain - the Armenian-Azerbaijani border - thus turning the vision of a seamless transcontinental logistics corridor into reality.

Furthermore, it would provide a geoeconomic strategy: For Türkiye, this corridor enhances its Eurasian footprint and supports its ambitions to become a major hub between East and West. It also strengthens the relationship between Azerbaijan and Türkiye, reflecting Erdogan’s emphasis on pan-Turkic unity at a time when Russophile influence is waning.

Watson validates Erdogan’s vision by highlighting how the corridor could diversify and streamline East-West trade flows, reducing dependency on politically complicated or costlier routes through Russia and Iran. Beyond logistics, the corridor offers Türkiye a powerful platform to expand its Eurasian economic and geopolitical influence, reinforcing the deepening Azerbaijani-Turkish partnership.

Q3: Beyond trade, the corridor carries significant geopolitical weight. Given the historic contest over this area and recent developments, including the Azerbaijani-Armenian bilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi, how do you interpret these emerging dynamics? Are other regional or global actors influencing the corridor’s future?

Neil Watson:
The recent high-level contacts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, such as the Abu Dhabi meeting, indicate a softening of relations, work towards a long-awaited peace and possible new arrangements over corridor access.

Besides, the EU and USA have quietly supported regional reopening and trade diversification, especially if it reduces dependence on Russian infrastructure. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, China welcomes new routes that improve reliability and redundancy in Eurasian logistics.

The Zangazur Corridor is not merely a transport project - it is a geopolitical and economic pivot point with implications for connectivity, sovereignty, and regional power balances. Its opening could significantly benefit Azerbaijan and Turkiye whilst reshaping the South Caucasus transit map. However, its realisation depends on sensitive negotiations involving not just Baku and Yerevan, but also Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, and potentially Brussels and Beijing.

Watson highlights the complex geopolitical web surrounding the corridor. While Armenian concerns about sovereignty remain a major hurdle, the shifting influence of traditional powers like Russia, along with Tehran’s regional apprehensions, add layers of complexity. Meanwhile, Western and Chinese interests underscore the corridor’s broader significance as part of global trade and political networks. The corridor’s future hinges on delicate diplomatic balances involving multiple actors with competing agendas.

The Zangazur Corridor transcends the realm of infrastructure; it represents a critical geopolitical and economic fulcrum with far-reaching implications for regional connectivity, national sovereignty, and the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Its successful opening promises substantial benefits for Azerbaijan and Türkiye, positioning them as central players in a revamped Eurasian transit network. Yet, the corridor’s realisation hinges on delicate and complex negotiations - not only between Baku and Yerevan but also involving influential external actors such as Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, and potentially Brussels and Beijing. Navigating this intricate web of interests will determine whether the corridor becomes a transformative gateway to regional stability and prosperity or remains mired in unresolved tensions.