What is consternation of Iran regarding S.Caucasus?
Unlike Armenia, which openly expresses its hatred towards Azerbaijan, Iran has been secretly pursuing a policy of double standards against Baku for more than 100 years. Although it played the role of a so-called ‘brotherly country’ on the face, it always showed its support to Armenia in the very crucial moments.
The countless successes of Azerbaijan recently: both the successful implementation of local anti-terrorist measures and the opening of the Igdir-Nakhchivan gas pipeline with Turkiye were probably not favorable for Iran. Also, the issue of the reintegration of Garabagh Armenians, which is currently on the agenda, has started to worry Iran a little more.
Another reason for Iran's concern is economic perspectives in the South Caucasus. Thus, the opening of the Zangazur Corridor looks like a deep fiasco for Iran.
The interesting issue is that Iran is currently silent on the events. But I wonder what hidden moments are behind this silence?
"Actually, Iran has not remained silent about the events. Rather, it has to remain silent. Because Iran has always not been able to take on Azerbaijan, nor its allies like Turkiye and Israel."
These words were told by a South Azerbaijani researcher-writer Mohammad Rahmanifar, in a comment to AZERNEWS. According to him, Iran has always openly expressed its support for Armenia. Also, Tehran placed more hope in Moscow in the realization of many of its regional dreams. Iran thought that Russia would always be with Armenia. But Russia's neutral approach overturned all Iran's plans.
"Regarding the first days of the second Garabagh war, Iranian officials invited Azerbaijan and Armenia to negotiations for peace. In this matter, Iran's wish was for Russia to intervene and protest in this matter. However, it seems that Iran's expectations from Russia were in vain. For this reason, Iran currently feels alone in the square. On the one hand, the support of Turkiye, Israel, and other countries to Azerbaijan, and on the other hand, the lack of any partner and supporter of its own made Iran remain silent. In fact, a few days ago, Iran appealed to Azerbaijan "feeling sorry" for the so-called ‘plight’ of Armenians living in Garabagh and put forward the protection of their human rights. However, as the processes continue, more interesting points about Iran are emerging. Instead of protecting the human rights of the South Azerbaijanis living under the regime’s oppression, Iran cares about a handful of Armenians living in Garabagh," the researcher-writer added.
The expert noted that another issue that silences Iran is related to South Azerbaijanis living in the historical lands of Azerbaijan.
"We also witnessed the crowd of South Azerbaijanis during the Second Garabagh war. They did not remain silent in support of their compatriots living on the north side. Otherwise, maybe Iran would repeatedly try to intervene militarily against Azerbaijan," the expert noted.
According to Mohammad Rahmanifar, Iran's biggest concern at the moment is the Zangazur Corridor. As a reason, the expert said that if this corridor is opened, Azerbaijan's dependence on Iran will stop once and for all. Because currently, when crossing from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, one is passing through territories that are historically considered to be Azerbaijani lands, but politically considered to be the border of Iran. Iran's desire is to make this dependence permanent, to make Azerbaijan "needy".
As for the Iranian-Armenian border crossing with Zangazur, Rahmanifar said that the issue of building a certain bridge for it is still uncertain. Therefore, Iran is very worried.
In conclusion, the expert said that the Russian-Ukrainian war, the political and economic strengthening of Azerbaijan, and the orientation of Armenia to the West have overturned all the plans of Iran. On the other hand, although the role of Iran in the Silk Road project was wider, the opening of the Zangazur Corridor only made it possible for the Turkic states to make sufficient investments here. All that is left for Iran is to provoke and finance terrorist groups. Just as the Armenian side, which did the same, but was successfully defeated within less than a day as a result of local anti-terrorist measures.
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