Azernews.Az

Ulviyya Poladova

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A missile strike on a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait overnight has already had an impact on global oil markets, sending crude prices higher. Brent crude on the London exchange rose to $91.63 per barrel, while WTI reached $85.28 and Urals climbed to $84.60. Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light, known for its low sulfur content and high quality, is trading at an even higher price of $94.58 per barrel.

Despite conciliatory statements from US and Iranian officials, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has also become increasingly dangerous, alongside the Strait of Hormuz.

The fact that the vessel targeted in the attack was a container ship rather than an oil tanker does not necessarily change the situation. If Houthi militants spot an oil tanker, they could also launch missile strikes against it, further threatening the security of a key maritime route.

According to Reuters’ assessment, in the event of a serious blockade, global oil prices could rise to $115–120 per barrel. The situation is particularly significant as the approaching winter season is expected to increase energy demand and put additional pressure on prices.

As the Strait of Hormuz became increasingly dangerous, some Middle Eastern countries began relying more heavily on the Bab el-Mandeb route. However, the Houthis, seeking to pressure the United States to halt its military operations in the region, have now created an additional security risk in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as well.

US Energy Information Administration reported that stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is not expected in the immediate future. One of the main reasons is the lack of progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States. At present, both sides continue to accuse each other, while no concrete steps have been taken to reopen the strait. At the same time, active military operations have not resumed.

Washington and Tehran, which are maintaining indirect communication through Qatar and Pakistan, are both being affected by the continued disruption of the waterways and the resulting decline in global oil supplies. Iran is struggling to export its oil, while the United States is increasingly concerned about rising fuel prices at home.