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Ulviyya Poladova

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While oil prices hog the headlines and gas only gets a mention when winter rolls around, a far more important metal has been quietly flying under the radar - copper. Once we look at the bigger picture, the scale of copper demand becomes hard to ignore. And yet it is copper, right now, that will decide how the whole "green energy" story ends. An electric vehicle requires roughly 80 kilograms of copper, compared with around 20 kilograms in a conventional car. Solar panels, charging stations and new power transmission lines stretching across entire regions all require copper.

Just a couple of days ago, Kirill Dmitriev, Russia's presidential envoy for investment and economic cooperation and head of the RDIF, wrote on his X account that copper's investment appeal has climbed to the level of gold. In his view, "copper is becoming the new gold."

The statement came against the backdrop of a sharp rise in copper prices. In mid-September, three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed above $14,800 per metric ton. On Comex, the price rose to $6.9285 per pound, hitting an all-time high.

For that matter, copper has been on a tear for three years running. In the past year alone the metal has climbed 47%.

On top of that, a large volume of copper was shipped into the United States this year in anticipation of President Donald Trump's decision to slap tariffs on imports of the metal. That drew down copper stocks in the warehouses the London Metal Exchange tracks around the world. Buyers in China also stepped up their activity, sharpening the competition for supply. At the same time, ore at the old copper deposits is steadily running thin.

Prices are climbing even as the metal sits in surplus. By the reckoning of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), world output of refined copper in the first five months of 2026 rose by about 3% year on year, to 12.05 million tonnes. Consumption over the same stretch grew 2.2%, to 11.58 million tonnes. That means the market surplus in January-May jumped 89% against the same period a year earlier - from 117,000 tonnes to 221,000 tonnes.

Copper is one of the most significant materials for the transition to green energy. Because it is a very efficient conduit, it is utilized in renewable energy systems all around the world to generate power from solar, hydro, thermal, and wind. Copper reduces CO2 emissions and lowers the amount of energy required to generate power. Many renewable energy systems include six times as much copper as typical systems. It is one of the few materials that can be recycled repeatedly without losing performance.

Renewable energy sources account for roughly one-quarter of global power generation, and copper plays a crucial role in making it as efficient as possible while minimizing environmental damage. As the demand for green energy grows, so does the importance of copper, which has a direct impact on copper market prices. So, if the world wants to fully switch to "green" energy, then by 2050 it will need to extract four times more copper than it does today. According to a study by researchers from the University of Michigan published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science, with a full-scale transition to clean energy, global copper prices could double.

Is copper really the new gold?

In terms of how its value has moved, copper can indeed be likened to gold, which has itself surged over the past three years. But that is where the resemblance between the two metals ends. Gold is primarily a financial asset and a reserve held by central banks around the world. Copper, by contrast, is an essential industrial metal. Modern economies cannot expand their power systems or digital infrastructure without it.

What exactly is driving copper prices

The rise of artificial intelligence has become one of the most powerful engines of copper demand. Data centers, especially those built for AI, devour colossal amounts of copper, not only for power cables and transformers but for cooling systems, busways and circuit boards. Energy is an additional incentive, as new power plants and networks are being built to power these data centers.

The run-up in copper prices may also owe something to geopolitics. Take the Strait of Hormuz, through which an enormous volume of goods passes. According to the International Energy Agency, roughly half the world's seaborne trade in sulphur moves through Hormuz. Sulphur is used to make sulphuric acid, which figures, among other things, in certain copper-extraction technologies. The IEA ties disruptions to sulphur supplies in 2026 to rising production costs for a range of critical minerals. In other words, the threat to supply can surface well before the finished metal ever reaches a ship. A hiccup in the necessary raw materials is enough.

The trade rivalry between China and the United States throws in yet another reason to build up stockpiles: companies may be looking to shield their production from future restrictions. Companies are increasingly looking to build up copper inventories as they prepare for possible tariffs and other trade barriers. The United States has already taken steps to reduce its reliance on imported copper, while China remains one of the world's biggest consumers of the metal. That puts additional pressure on global supplies and encourages companies to secure copper before potential restrictions disrupt trade flows.

Washington has formally reclassified copper as a strategic material. A Section 232 investigation brought copper, concentrates, scrap and derivatives into the orbit of national security. The aim is to cut dependence on imports. Against that backdrop, the COMEX premium over the LME has stopped being a mere price signal. It is the mechanism by which the American market pulls free volumes of refined copper onto its own shores.

According to Trading Economics, global copper mine production could decline this year for the first time since 2017. Supply disruptions, declining ore grades and weaker output in Chile are all expected to weigh on production.

Global identified copper resources are estimated at between 830 million and 1 billion tonnes, depending on the methodology and source.

As of 2026, the countries with the largest reported copper reserves include:

• Chile - 180 million tonnes
• Australia - 100 million tonnes
• Peru - 85 million tonnes
• Russia - 80 million tonnes
• Democratic Republic of the Congo - 80 million tonnes
• Mexico - 53 million tonnes
• United States - 47 million tonnes
• China - 41 million tonnes

About 23 million tonnes of copper are mined each year. S&P Global forecasts that by 2040 world copper consumption will rise by 50%. At the same time, the supply shortfall could exceed 10 million tonnes a year -- roughly a quarter of expected demand. Put plainly, mining simply will not keep pace with demand. And as experts warn, the picture is unlikely to change in the coming years. The reason is that anywhere from 10 to 30 years pass between discovery and the launch of a mine, and new projects will not deliver any noticeable gain before 2030.

Oil and gas may continue to dominate the energy headlines, but the next stage of the energy transition will depend on a much quieter market. Copper may not be the new gold, but it could prove just as important to the way the global economy develops over the next two decades.