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By Ayya Lmahamad

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has arrived in Azerbaijan to hold talks on a gas deal with President Ilham Aliyev. The sides are expected to discuss further strengthening the existing cooperation between the EU and Azerbaijan, as well as energy diversification issues. Moreover, a gas deal is expected to be signed within the visit.

In an exclusive interview with Azernews, the former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza spoke about his expectations of Ursula von der Leyen's visit to Azerbaijan, the expected gas agreement, the country's role in the world market, and the personal role of President Ilham Aliyev to this end.

A: I expect that European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen and EU Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson will pursue an agreement with the government of Azerbaijan, where Azerbaijan commits to selling and delivering natural gas to the European Union over the next year and beyond. But for now, most of that gas would end up being Turkmen gas, so Azerbaijan would serve as a transit state, because, Azerbaijan’s natural gas production has already been sold.

I hope to see that the TANAP pipeline would be filled with even more gas from Azerbaijan soon, but there won’t be new production coming out from Azerbaijan’s own natural gas fields until like 2025. So in the meantime, the only significant amount of additional natural gas that can make its way from the territory of Azerbaijan to Europe would be produced in Turkmenistan and then will come to Azerbaijan most likely via the swapping arrangement that is currently underway with Iran. So what happens now is, that Turkmenistan produces gas and sells it to the eastern side, north-eastern Iran, and then the same volume of gas that is produced in Iran is exported through the pipeline system on the other side of Iran, on the western side of Iran, and then that gas enters Azerbaijan. So that could be an agreement that is reached.

I don’t know if there will be an agreement reached, but I know that Azerbaijan very much wants to help Europe. I think this is a wise foreign policy approach by Azerbaijan and President Aliyev, which is a continuation of the policy of the last two decades, to use natural gas pipelines as a way to connect Azerbaijan to Europe via Turkey and Georgia, and thereby strengthen Azerbaijan’s sovereignty, independence, and prosperity. So wise policy and it’s continuing.

Azerbaijan’s role is the same as it has been, which is being, in this case, a supplier of oil and gas to European markets. And Azerbaijan has been very careful to be friendly to the European Union and the United States, while at the same time, not being unfriendly to Russia. And in the current situation where the European Union is trying to end its consumption of any Russian gas, of course, the gas delivered from Azerbaijan or via Azerbaijan to the Iran swap is more important than ever.

Background:

EU and Azerbaijan are in active dialogue on increasing gas supplies amid the energy crisis. A joint statement on energy cooperation with the EU was signed more than ten years ago. The EU-Azerbaijan energy cooperation had reached a new level and is still ongoing within the framework of the Southern Gas Corridor. The EU places a high value on energy supply diversification, and the Southern Gas Corridor is particularly important in this regard.

On July 15, Aliyev announced the signing of an energy security agreement between the EU and Azerbaijan during the meeting on the results for the first six months of 2022.

To recall, with the completion of the TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline) construction on December 31, 2020, Azerbaijan began commercial gas supplies to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor. The Southern Gas Corridor is an initiative of the European Commission for a natural gas supply route from the Caspian and Middle Eastern regions to Europe. The route from Azerbaijan to Europe consists of the South Caucasus Pipeline, TANAP, and TAP.

Last year, TAP transported 8.1 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe. By late 2022, Azerbaijan plans to increase gas supplies to Europe to 9.1 billion cubic meters, and in 2023, the volume of gas supplies is expected to reach 11 billion cubic meters.

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Ayya Lmahamad is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @AyyaLmahamad

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