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Akbar Novruz

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Confidence in Azerbaijan's industrial sector weakened in September 2026, with businesses reporting lower production expectations and declining output indicators, according to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA).

Data from the CBA's real sector monitoring survey showed that the industrial confidence index fell to 13 points in September, down 4.2 points from 17.2 in August and 7.1 points below the 20.1 recorded in September 2025.

The decline interrupted three consecutive months of improvement, during which the index rose from 14 points in June to 15.7 in July and 17.2 in August.

The most significant deterioration was recorded in expectations for future production.

The indicator measuring industrial enterprises' production expectations for the next three months declined to 18.1 points in September, compared with 21.1 points in August.

On an annual basis, the decrease was considerably sharper, with the indicator falling by 23.4 points from 41.5 in September 2025.

Recent production performance also weakened. The survey indicator measuring industrial output over the previous three months dropped from 26.3 points in August to 19.1 in September, although it remained above the 16 points registered a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the indicator for orders received by industrial enterprises improved slightly, rising from -28.9 points in August to -26.5 in September.

Despite this improvement, the indicator remained in negative territory and was weaker than the -24.8 points recorded in September 2025, suggesting continued pressure on industrial order books.

Price expectations also declined. The indicator measuring expected price changes over the next three months fell from 3.8 points in August to 2 points in September, substantially below the 13.5 points registered a year earlier.