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By Bloomberg

If the European Central Bank's Governing Council can't agree about buying sovereign bonds, it's hard to blame economists for failing to agree on whether it ever will.

A split is thus as evident among ECB-watchers as it is between policy makers. In making forecasts, weak growth and inflation must be balanced against Germany's aversion to quantitative easing and practical considerations including how and whether it would work.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees one in three odds of QE, Morgan Stanley views the chances at 40 percent and JPMorgan Chase & Co. is 50-50. By contrast, HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have full-blown QE as part of their central scenarios. Citigroup Inc. even says it could happen before the end of this year.

Here then is a handy round-up, gleaned from reports and interviews, of where economists at major banks stand.

Huw Pill, Goldman Sachs: "Sovereign QE is not part of our baseline scenario, which is for economic activity to go sideways and inflation to remain low. We think the current gloom and doom about the euro area outlook is overdone."

Joerg Kraemer, Commerzbank: "We were one of the first banks to predict at the end of August that the ECB would buy government bonds on a generous scale, envisaging this happening at the start of next year rather than this year."

"It has become far more likely that the bank will act before the end of this year. Concerns about the economy that have triggered the drop in equity prices make it ever more likely that the ECB will have to lower its optimistic growth forecast for 2015 of 1.6 percent."

"This fact plays into the hands of those on the ECB Council in favour of relaxing the reins, as does our expectation that the end of the bank stress test will not in fact sound the all-clear for weak lending. Long-term inflation expectations have dropped sharply."

David Mackie, JPMorgan Chase: "We think the next move in the real economy is an improvement so holding on to the hope of an improvement. We think we've passed the low in inflation and the inflation dynamic is improving off the extreme lows so your basic macro story begins to look a bit better."

Elga Bartsch, Morgan Stanley: "Should the ECB, contrary to our expectations, embark upon full blown QE next year, we would expect it to insist on a more coordinated, growth-friendly fiscal policy, bolder structural reforms and adherence to stability and growth pact rules. These concerns could be addressed by linking the purchases, notably the countries whose bonds are bought, to them fulfilling their respective requirements" of the pact.

Ruben Segura-Cayuela, BofA Merrill Lynch: "We now see sovereign QE as unavoidable next year. Our central scenario (hence data dependent) is of an economic recovery and an inflation profile that surprise the ECB on the downside, and a package of measures that is unlikely to have any impact on the economy during the next six months, beyond movement in the exchange rate."

Janet Henry, HSBC: "The fear of deflation looms ever larger over the euro zone. Growth is disappointing once again, inflation expectations have fallen and the ECB keeps trying to come to the rescue. But there is little in the way of structural reform, fiscal stimulus or institutional changes. Huge hopes are now pinned on full-scale quantitative easing and a much weaker euro to save the day."

"We maintain our long-held view that the ECB will deliver QE early in 2015 in an attempt to meet its inflation mandate."

Ebrahim Rahbari, Citigroup: "We continue to expect a QE program, mostly focused on government bonds, to be announced in late-2014 or early 2015."

Richard Barwell, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc: "There does appear to be a pecking order here with corporate-bond purchases in front of sovereign-bond purchases when it comes to the next policy response unless the politicians deliver."

Mark Wall and team, Deutsche Bank: "Price stability is the ECB's primary mandate and the downside risks to growth and inflation expectations over the next six months make public QE more likely than not."

"All else unchanged, a net 1 trillion euro expansion of the ECB balance sheet is sufficient to bring inflation on target in 2017 with the euro falling only to $1.16. A lower oil price might yet save the ECB from the controversy of public QE, as long as it does not compound the disanchoring of inflation expectations before the growth benefits materialize. The danger period for the ECB is the next six months."

Peter Vanden Houte, ING Groep: "As it is ultimately the easiest to implement from a practical point of view and allows for a sufficient size, the ECB will have little other choice than to go for the sovereign bond route, probably in the first quarter of 2015."

Philippe Gudin and team, Barclays: "The ECB will have to extend its asset purchase program into European government bonds by the first quarter 2015."

"With persistent weak activity and inflation data to be released in coming months, it's likely that current ECB actions will be considered insufficient to stabilize the situation and boost inflation."

Michala Marcussen, Societe Generale SA: "The ECB can execute full-blown QE. Heading into next year, we see two triggers for QE. First, outright deflation on the core-measures. We place a 15 percent probability on such an event over the coming quarters. Second, continued lowflation, i.e. growth and inflation remaining in the 0-1 percent range heading into the second half of 2015. We place a probability of 20 percent on such a scenario."

Reinhard Cluse and team, UBS AG: "Given the significant policy accommodation that was announced in June and September we think that the likelihood of sovereign QE is limited, at least over the next few quarters. But even beyond this period, full- scale QE is not our base-case scenario, given our projection that HICP inflation has now bottomed and should start to creep up again."

Nick Kounis, ABN Amro Bank NV: "We do not think sovereign QE is the most likely scenario going forward. Most of the drivers we look at are consistent with a moderate recovery in economic growth and a gradual rise in inflation while remaining below 2 percent for a long time."

"Policy makers should not be satisfied with an outlook for modest growth and low inflation. However, this has been a consistent theme over the last couple of years and the ECB has refused to pull the sovereign QE trigger. This appears to reflect strong opposition to government purchases at some central banks, not least the Bundesbank."