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Saturday, March 28, 2026

Ballots or battlefront? Ukraine confronts limits of democracy under martial law [ANALYSIS]

28 March 2026 15:49 (UTC+04:00)
Ballots or battlefront? Ukraine confronts limits of democracy under martial law [ANALYSIS]
Akbar Novruz
Akbar Novruz
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Reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may announce presidential elections and a peace referendum this spring have triggered intense debate in Kyiv.

According to the Financial Times, the idea emerged amid pressure from the administration of Donald Trumpa couple months ago, with U.S. officials allegedly urging elections by mid-May to preserve American security guarantees.

Zelensky himself has acknowledged a U.S. push to finalize documents to end the war by June, citing Washington’s desire to pivot toward its own midterm elections.

The move allegedly came after pressure from United States President Donald Trump's administration to hold elections by May 15, or else risk losing US security guarantees. According to the outlet, Zelensky will announce the elections on February 24, the fourth anniversary of the Russian attack.

The plan aligns with a US push, outlined by Volodymyr Zelensky to reporters last Friday, to have all documents signed to bring Europe’s largest conflict since the Second World War to an end by June.

“They say that they want to do everything by June ... so that the war ends,” Ukraine’s president said, citing the White House’s desire to shift its focus to the US midterm elections in November. “And they want a clear schedule.”

Holding an election would mark a dramatic political pivot for a president who has repeatedly argued that such votes are impossible while the country remains under martial law, millions of Ukrainians are displaced and about 20 per cent of the country is under Russian occupation.

According to Ukrainian and European officials involved in the planning and others briefed on the matter, Zelensky intends to announce the plan for presidential elections and a referendum on February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“The Ukrainians have this hard idea that it all needs to be bundled with Zelensky’s re-election,” said one Western official.

At the same time, Moscow has signaled that new peace talks may be imminent, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying there is already an understanding on timing and location, while Reuters reports on possible trilateral talks involving U.S. officials.

Against this backdrop, a fundamental question arises.

If Zelensky wants to hold elections, are they even possible under martial law?

To unpack this, AzerNEWS turned to Ukrainian political experts.

Vitaliy Yarmolenko, chief consultant at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, is unequivocal.

“Any elections during martial law time are not allowed in Ukraine. According to Part One of Article 19 of the Law of Ukraine ‘On the Legal Regime of Martial Law’, it is prohibited to hold elections of the President of Ukraine, people's deputies of Ukraine, local elections and referendums during the period of martial law. President Zelensky initiated discussions on amendments that would permit voting under certain conditions. So far, some law drafts are being discussed in parlament. However, there are technical issues that are still hard to solve.”

Yarmolenko also lists four major risks regarding the main practical barriers:

“The first one is safety. There is no warranty of any red alerts during polls. So, Russia should agree to a ceasefire, which looks impossible. The second one is the actual number of voters, and the possibility to vote for Ukrainian refugees abroad. Embassies and consulates do not look braced to fulfil the process. The third one is providing a free electoral process with free debates and an election campaign. The special information regime during the war limits the possibility for open discussions on the matters dedicated to tough topics of domestic politics and economy. And the fourth one is the ability for combatants to participate in elections as candidates… Thus, there are risks that elections during war wouldn't prove to be fully free and fair,” he stressed.

On the other hand, Oleksandr Merezhko, People’s Deputy of Ukraine, answered the question of whether there is political will in parliament to move forward regardless. He dismisses that notion outright.

“There will be no elections, no referendum. It’s impossible legally, politically, technically.” However, he pointed to constitutional procedure: “According to the Ukrainian Constitution, it is the Rada which declares holding the elections, after which elections are held within 90 days. Rada is not planning to declare elections as of now,” he said.

Besides, Merezhko’s answer was clear and categorical in response to the question of when elections could realistically take place.

“There is political agreement between political factions in the Rada that elections will be held within 6 months after lifting the martial law. So, to hold elections we need first ceasefire, security guarantees and lifting of martial law,” he concluded.

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