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Elnur Enveroglu

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When the Abraham Accords were first signed in 2020 under the auspices of then-US President Donald Trump, they marked a tectonic shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Formalising peace and normalisation between Israel and a growing number of Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, the Accords were as much about shared economic and security interests as they were about recognition and reconciliation.

As of 2025, the prospect of expanding this framework eastward, to include Azerbaijan and Central Asian nations such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, has gained significant traction. This strategic vision is not new: Trump’s diplomatic team had reportedly discussed Azerbaijan’s potential inclusion during the final year of his presidency. Now, as regional dynamics evolve and geopolitical alliances shift, the benefits and implications of such a move are more salient than ever.

Why Azerbaijan matters to Abraham Accords

Azerbaijan is uniquely positioned to become a valuable addition to the Abraham Accords. Unlike most Muslim-majority countries, Azerbaijan has maintained robust ties with Israel for decades, driven primarily by security cooperation, defence technology, and energy trade. Azerbaijan is one of Israel’s largest oil suppliers, while Israel has provided Baku with cutting-edge defence systems, crucial during the 2020 Second Garabagh War.

In many ways, Azerbaijan is already a de facto member of the spirit of the Accords. Its commitment to multilateral diplomacy, its secular governance, and its pragmatic foreign policy align with the Accord’s goals of regional integration, economic cooperation, and religious tolerance. Formalising this relationship within the framework of the Abraham Accords would elevate Azerbaijan's status as a bridge between the Islamic world and the West, between Europe and Asia, and between conflict zones and zones of cooperation.

Meanwhile, the US initiative is not insignificant, and Azerbaijan’s indispensable role in the Accord has not gone unnoticed by the White House leadership.

Generally,President Donald Trump’s vision for the Abraham Accords was never limited to the Gulf. His advisers saw potential in incorporating strategically aligned Muslim-majority states beyond the traditional Arab world, especially those with shared interests in countering Iranian influence, integrating with Western markets, and enhancing security cooperation with Israel and the USA.

Azerbaijan, along with Central Asian nations like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, fits this mould. These are secular states, largely untethered to pan-Islamist ideologies, and increasingly focused on economic diversification, infrastructure development, and energy diplomacy. A bloc-wide entry into the Accords, led or endorsed by the USA, could spark cross-regional trade, investment in renewables, and joint security initiatives, including counterterrorism and cyber defence.

This eastward expansion would also constrain Iranian influence, particularly along the critical North-South and East-West energy corridors, and signal that cooperation with Israel is no longer taboo, even in traditionally hesitant regions.

However, a significant burden still rests along this delicate line of the Accord running through the South Caucasus: the emerging peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

On the surface, it may not appear particularly significant, but from the perspective of the core parameters of the Abraham Accords, it is a matter of considerable importance. Therefore,one of the key geopolitical considerations surrounding Azerbaijan’s potential entry into the Abraham Accords is the ongoing normalisation process with Armenia. Paradoxically, while Azerbaijan’s reconciliation with Israel and the West strengthens its international standing, the unresolved dimensions of its conflict with Armenia could complicate its image among certain Middle Eastern audiences.

However, there is also a strategic logic at play. By promoting normalisation on both fronts, with Armenia and with Israel, Azerbaijan positions itself as a regional stabiliser. In fact, successful peace talks with Yerevan would strengthen Baku’s credibility as a constructive actor capable of bridging ethnic and religious divides, much like the Abraham Accords themselves aspire to do.

Moreover, Armenia’s recent pivot toward the West, particularly amid tensions with Russia, could eventually open doors to Armenia normalising ties with Israel, mirroring trends in the Gulf. Should that happen, Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the Abraham framework may serve as a model for broader regional peacebuilding.

Middle Eastern turbulence and the Gaza factor

While the Abraham Accords represent a genuine breakthrough in Arab–Israeli relations, their full realisation remains fragile and contingent, most notably on the situation in Gaza. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, renewed in late 2023, has complicated the political calculus for countries considering formal ties with Israel.

Many Muslim-majority states have delayed or frozen normalisation talks until progress is made on the Palestinian issue, especially in Gaza, where humanitarian suffering and asymmetric warfare continue to dominate global headlines. This dynamic is no different for Azerbaijan, a country sensitive to the symbolism of territorial integrity and displaced populations.

Public support for Palestine runs deep in Azerbaijani society, even as official ties with Israel remain strong. A perception that Azerbaijan is aligning too closely with Israel without due regard for the Palestinian cause could provoke domestic and regional backlash.

Thus, Baku’s potential entry into the Abraham Accords may depend not only on its own diplomatic calculations but also on whether Israel takes steps to reduce the intensity of the Gaza conflict and re-engage with Palestinian authorities. Only then can a new wave of normalisation, one that includes Azerbaijan, be both strategically sound and politically defensible.

Despite these complications, the long-term strategic advantages of Azerbaijan joining the Abraham Accords are compelling:

- Economic diversification through Israeli and Gulf investment in renewable energy, agriculture, and technology

- Security cooperation in fields such as intelligence, air defence, and counterterrorism

- Increased leverage in the South Caucasus, strengthening Azerbaijan’s role in regional diplomacy

- Enhanced energy connectivity, including green electricity exports to Israel via Türkiye or regional corridors

A formal alignment with the Abraham Accords would also offer Azerbaijan a platform to amplify its voice on pressing regional matters, including the Gaza conflict, in a constructive way that reflects both pragmatism and principle.

Moreover, against the backdrop of regional stability, economic prosperity could become an inevitable opportunity, especially in a context where the Abraham Accords possess the potential to promote cross-cultural and cross-regional ties. Here, Azerbaijan’s inclusion would not only validate its multivector foreign policy, but also accelerate economic growth, cement security alliances, and promote regional stability—if managed carefully.

Still, the moral and political weight of the Gaza conflict cannot be ignored. For the Accords to evolve into a sustainable and inclusive regional pact, Israel must do its part by reducing civilian suffering, upholding international law, and engaging sincerely in dialogue with Palestinians.

If these conditions are met, Azerbaijan’s path to the Abraham Accords could serve as a symbol of modern diplomacy, where pragmatic interests align with enduring principles, and where peace is not just a signature on paper, but a platform for transformation.