Kyrgyzstan may face political instability this fall, expert says
By Aynur Jafarova
Kyrgyzstan may face political instability this autumn.
Discussions on the dissolution of the U.S. transit center in the Manas airport and on the document on joining the Customs Union, comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in three areas - the Customs Code, the common customs tariffs and providing the customs borders with necessary facilities may be regarded as direct causes of the potential instability, Kyrgyz expert Sergey Masaulov believes.
The Transit Center, formerly called a military base, was opened at the Manas airport in late 2001. The center is a major logistics hub for transportation of goods and the anti-terror coalition forces to Afghanistan.
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev said earlier that following withdrawal of the U.S. military the airport has to become an entirely civilian facility. Atambayev has repeatedly said his country will not extend the stay of foreign military staff in its civil airport under any circumstances.
According to Masaulov, some individuals are dissatisfied with the government in Kyrgyzstan today.
"The situation is tough in the country," he said. "It is hard
for the government to operate because the state budget has a "huge
gap" that it can not fill."
"The population is dissatisfied with the government," he said.
Last week opposition to the Kyrgyz government held rallies, the main reason of which was the disputes over the Kumtor gold deposit. They demanded to denounce the agreement with the Canadian Centerra Gold Company who operates in the Kumtor gold mine.
The agreement between the Centerra Gold Company and Kyrgyzstan which envisaged operating the Kumtor mine was signed in 2009.
However, a state commission said the Canadian company's activity negatively impacts the environment and violates the country's environmental legislation, and Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers is seeking damages totaling more than $140 million, largely a result of claims over the disposal of waste at the Kumtor site.
Centerra's management has said it may turn to international arbitration if the Kyrgyz government refuses to honor existing legal guarantees. According to head of the Centerra Gold Company Michael Fischer, the Kumtor project complies with Kyrgyz laws, and meets or exceeds Kyrgyz and international environmental, safety and health standards.
Kyrgyz Prime Minister Jantoro Satybaldiyev believes that compromise in this issue is vital as the investment climate of Kyrgyzstan directly depends on how successfully the Kumtor problem will be resolved.
The Kumtor gold mine is the largest in Central Asia and has produced more than 8.4 million ounces of gold between 1997 and the end of 2011.
Centerra's subsidiary, Kumtor Operating Company, is the largest revenue earner for the Kyrgyz budget. In 2011, it accounted for 12 percent of Kyrgyzstan's GDP and over half its industrial output, according to government statistics. Last year, those figures dropped to 6.6 percent and 37.9 percent, respectively, due to damaging work stoppages at the mine, which dragged down the entire economy, experts believe.
Centerra currently pays a 13 percent tax on its gross revenue and another 1 percent into a special fund for the development of the Issyk Kul Region, where Kumtor is based.