Azernews.Az

By News Centre

Israel’s moves to establish new energy routes and the Iran-U.S. tension targeting the Strait of Hormuz are shaking the global energy system. Experts, however, say that the emerging situation presents a critical opportunity for Turkiye. Yeditepe University Faculty Member Assoc. Prof. Dr. Furkan Kaya stated, “The Persian Gulf may no longer hold its former significance. The new Basra could be İskenderun.”

Pointing to Turkiye’s strategic location and its notable energy initiatives in recent years, Assoc. Prof. Dr Kaya emphasized that energy policies are no longer merely economic but have become a direct element of geopolitical power.

Kaya explained this transformation as follows: “Turkiye’s energy policy is no longer just an economic necessity. It has also become a powerful geopolitical instrument. Today, we are at a stage we call energy diplomacy. Especially in the 21st century, the increasing population and uncontrolled growth have intensified energy demand, making countries more assertive and aggressive. Access to energy is no longer just a matter of competition; it has become a direct struggle for power.”

Highlighting that recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz underscore this reality, Kaya noted that Iran’s greatest leverage is geographic, not military. He said: “Iran holds a power more dangerous than its nuclear weapons—the Hormuz card. This tiny waterway is, in fact, the world’s main artery. More than 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily. At the same time, nearly 30% of global LNG trade is conducted via this route. If you constrict this artery, you effectively paralyze the global economy.”

Kaya warned that a prolonged crisis in Hormuz could directly push Europe into collapse. “If this crisis continues for a few more months, Europe will have to pay 80-90% more for natural gas. What does this mean? Rising production costs, higher inflation, and reduced welfare. Europe is already not strong; such an energy shock would directly trigger an economic breakdown.”

According to Kaya, Turkiye is in a more prepared position in this global crisis, and Ankara’s long-term energy strategy is now showing results. “Turkiye is energy-dependent, but it follows a smart strategy. We are not dependent on Basra. Our dependency there is around 7%, because we have alternative routes: TANAP, TurkStream, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, and Kirkuk-Ceyhan. We have essentially prepared ourselves for any crisis,” he said.

Pointing to the rising role of the İskenderun Gulf, Kaya added: “I am now very clear: nothing will remain the same in the Persian Gulf. So, if you ask where the new Basra could be, my answer is clear: the İskenderun Gulf. This is not a wishful thought; it is a reality indicated by developments on the ground.”

Kaya emphasized that transporting Kirkuk oil to the Mediterranean via Turkiye will play a key role in this equation. Highlighting the current pipeline’s potential, he said: “The Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline is currently not operating at full capacity—only about 25%. Its capacity is 1.6 million barrels, but today it transports around 500,000 barrels. If it reaches full capacity, it could generate $13 billion in direct annual revenue. The total economic volume could reach $40 billion.”

Addressing Israel’s attempts to bypass Turkiye through alternative energy routes, Kaya remarked: “There is a strategy to transport Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean via Syria instead of Turkiye. Kirkuk-Baniyas, Kirkuk-Tripoli, Kirkuk-Haifa pipelines are on the agenda. But the main goal is to exclude Turkiye from the equation. If Turkiye becomes an energy hub, it changes the balance. Security in Syria is not fully guaranteed. Tomorrow is uncertain. Energy requires sustainability and security. The safest route is Turkiye.”

Kaya also noted that Turkiye can gain a strong global position not only through energy but also by managing water resources. “Energy alone is not enough. It must be paired with water. We control two major sources, the Euphrates and Tigris. A Turkiye that manages both energy and water would not need nuclear weapons. These two cards make you strong both on the field and at the negotiating table. Turkiye is the hinge of three continents. If we use the advantages of this geography and play the energy and water cards correctly, no one can exclude Turkiye. On the contrary, everyone will have to act with Turkiye. This shows us the true meaning of power.”