Azernews.Az

Two weeks of US-Israeli air strikes have displaced millions inside Iran, raising fears in neighboring countries about a possible refugee spillover that could potentially turn into a humanitarian crisis, AzerNEWS reports.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said it is preparing for potential humanitarian needs in the region, estimating that up to 3.2 million people have been temporarily displaced inside Iran, most of whom are fleeing Tehran, which on March 13 saw one of the heaviest days of bombardment in the conflict so far.

Several of Iran’s neighbors closed their borders at the onset of the air strikes, which started on February 28, and have only sparingly allowed mainly citizens of third countries to cross as they transit home.

Pourkaz is one of the 3.2 million people in Iran who the UN refugee agency estimates have been displaced since the war began between Israel and the United States, and Iran. While some are seeking shelter in safer parts of Iran or one of its neighboring countries, others are returning from abroad, heading toward the fighting to protect their families and homes.

So far, relatively few people have chosen to leave: The UN estimates that only about 1,300 Iranians have fled via Turkiye each day since the war started, and on some days, more people return to Iran than depart. But Iran’s neighbors and Europe are growing increasingly concerned about a possible migration crisis should the war drag on and are making contingency plans.

As Pourkaz was entering Turkiye, Leila Rabetnezhadfard was headed the other way.

Rabetnezhadfard, 45, was in Istanbul preparing to marry a German university professor when the fighting started. She postponed the ceremony and left for home in Shiraz, in southern Iran.

“How can I feel safe in Istanbul when my family is living in Iran during the war?” said Rabetnezhadfard, explaining that bringing her family to Istanbul wasn’t an option because her apartment is small, her brother needs medical care, and life there is expensive.
“I will not leave Iran until the war ends,” she said.

The UN has warned that continued fighting will likely push more Iranians to flee their homes.

As in the 12-day conflict last year, many Iranians are now sheltering in place, without money to flee or perhaps because of US President Donald Trump’s Feb. 28 warning.
“Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere,” he said.

Although large numbers of Iranians haven’t fled the country yet, people have been leaving major cities for the relative safety of the countryside bordering the Caspian Sea north of the capital, Tehran, according to the International Organization for Migration.

“Movement out of Iran appears limited mainly because people are prioritizing staying with their families, as well as the safety of their families and property, and due to security conditions and logistical constraints,” said Salvador Gutierrez, chief of the IOM’s mission in Iran.

If Iran’s critical infrastructure is destroyed, that could lead to waves of people trying to cross into one of Iran’s neighbors: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkiye and Iraq.