Sri Lanka, Armenia and Pakistan top the list of emerging market countries that are most vulnerable to refinancing risks, as they face a combination of large upcoming redemptions and low foreign exchange reserves.
These are the findings of the Moody's rating agency.
“Since the international sovereign bonds will be redeemed in 2019 and 2020, the governments of Sri Lanka, Armenia and Pakistan will be exposed to more expensive debt financing,” Matthew Circosta, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd. wrote.
"This can reduce the availability of debt and increase their debt burden, especially if local currencies depreciate," he said, Reuters reported.
Although the sovereign credit ratings of Sri Lanka, Armenia and Pakistan reflect how vulnerable they are, a further blow to their foreign exchange reserves may increase the risk of lower capital inflows and higher refinancing costs. This, in turn, may cast a shadow over credit ratings, Moody's believes.
In 2020, Armenia is expected to pay off $ 500 million, which accounts for 3.9 percent of GDP.
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