Armenia must abandon revenge if it wants peace with Azerbaijan
By Vugar Khalilov
Armenia has to forget about revenge if it wants to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club Ilgar Valizade has said.
He made the remarks in an interview with Baku-based news website Day.az.
"To make the current processes in our region irreversible, and to rule out the possibility of war with Azerbaijan, Armenia needs a peace treaty, a kind of international legal shield against the possibility of a repeat of the war in any of its forms,” Valizade stressed.
Armenia's current leadership recognizes that a future confrontation with Azerbaijan makes no sense after experiencing the infamy and sorrow of loss during the 44-day war in 2020. It is self-evident that the forces in power in Armenia are opposed to vengeance in all of its forms and manifestations. Of course, their convictions would not have been as strong if the Azerbaijani army had not won the war with Armenia in 2020, Valizade underlined.
The expert emphasized the Armenian leadership is guided by its own interests and recognizes that a conflict with Azerbaijan would be disastrous for Armenia. Pashinyan also sends a message to his own opposition, claiming that "we purportedly have a peace treaty with Azerbaijan" and that "any attempt to reinstate the old agenda is doomed to failure". Thus, Pashinyan consolidates his position.
The idyll, however, comes to an end here, because Armenia does not place the same value on the text of the peace treaty as Azerbaijan does. Armenia sees something streamlined in the peace treaty that will allow them to exert control over the Armenians in Karabakh, if not militarily, then in some other way.
Clearly, the Armenian leadership recognizes that discussions about Karabakh's "independence" and other similar issues exist solely for the sake of inertia and rhetoric. These procedures are guaranteed to fail in terms of execution, and they rule out the possibility of working toward a peace treaty, Valizade said.
On the other hand, Armenians are still tempted to exert influence over the situation on this issue, and they are attempting to insert language into the contract that will allow them to do so, he added.
The expert noted that Armenians have been talking about "independence" out of inertia, but this is mostly political rhetoric, and they will insist on various levels of involvement in Karabakh during specific conversations. Azerbaijan, of course, will not accept this and will resist it.
Baku, based on President Ilham Aliyev's comments, will not abandon its goal of establishing a peace treaty that recognizes territorial integrity and forbids any territorial claims against the neighboring country. Without this declaration, there will be no peace in the region because Armenia will continue to be a source of destabilization and new bloodshed.
Meanwhile, Yerevan is becoming more vocal in its willingness to negotiate a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. The discourse in Yerevan today is vastly different from that of six months ago. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently stated that his government's goal is to "sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and establish diplomatic relations with Turkey". In his words, Yerevan is ready "for a meaningful, concrete conversation".
"The issues of unblocking regional communications, demarcating the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, and signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the agenda," Pashinyan said.
The stated goals are commendable. Of course, all of this should have been implemented immediately over 18 months following the end of the 44-day war in 2020. The arrival of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh’s Armenian-populated zone encouraged Armenia, allowing dreams to run wild.
It should be noted that these fantasies were not entirely without foundation, but world politics is full of surprises. Today, Armenia recognizes that global trends have moved the Armenians out of their orbit. Only by normalizing relations with its neighbors, Armenia will be able to survive in the new conditions.
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