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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to the United States for the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly is being closely watched as a potential turning point in US-Türkiye relations. Unlike previous Democratic administrations, which largely avoided direct engagement with Ankara, the Trump administration’s approach provides Türkiye with an opportunity to negotiate across a wide range of strategic, economic, and security issues.

What kind of turning point might the Erdoğan-Trump meeting represent in US-Türkiye relations? What could be the key strategic benefits Türkiye might gain from these talks? What possible effects could this meeting have on the Palestinian issue? How might this meeting influence Türkiye's role within NATO or its relations with Russia?

Prof. Dr. İrfan Kaya Ülger, political science expert at Kocaeli University, shared insights with Azernews on the four-day visit. On the first day, Erdoğan attended a conference sponsored by Saudi Arabia and France focused on resolving the Palestinian issue peacefully and promoting the two-state solution. “Erdoğan then attended the eightyeth session of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. He spoke third, after US President Trump and the President of Indonesia. He will attend the climate summit on Wednesday,” Ülger explained.

The high-level bilateral meeting with Trump on Thursday is expected to be particularly significant. “This meeting will strengthen bilateral trade and military relations between Türkiye and the US. Türkiye will also express its views strongly on the issues of Gaza, the establishment of peace in Syria under the new administration, and other regional disputes,” Ülger said.

Military and defense priorities

A central focus of the discussions will be Türkiye’s return to the F-35 program, from which it was previously removed due to sanctions. The meeting will also cover the purchase of forty F-16 Block 70 fighter jets. “Trump needs to be persuaded to agree on these matters. From a commercial perspective, the purchase of approximately 250–300 Boeing passenger jets is underway. Türkiye requires 500 jets, half of which will come from Boeing and the other half from European Airbus. Erdoğan also reduced and lifted tariffs on some US agricultural and industrial products at the beginning of his visit, creating a favorable negotiation environment for Thursday,” Ülger said.

However, the F-35 and F-16 acquisitions will not depend solely on Trump’s decision. Congressional approval is necessary. “Currently, the Republican Party holds a strong position in Congress. There is a strong possibility that the sale of these F-16 and F-35 jets to Türkiye will be approved before November 5th. If it is delayed beyond this date, the approval process will become more difficult,” Ülger noted.

The military gains are crucial for Türkiye. “The most important things Türkiye can gain from this meeting are weapons in this last industrial area because Türkiye currently faces an air force shortage until domestic aircraft production begins. It will either procure fighter jets from European-based organizations or from the US. There is a strong possibility of both,” Ülger said.

Political and regional dimensions

Beyond military issues, Erdoğan is expected to press for US support in Syria. “Türkiye is sensitive to the strengthening of the administration in Syria under Ahmed Eşar. Erdoğan expects US support in this regard. Trump supports it, but the Pentagon and Centcom have obstructed implementation on the ground. This may be resolved in this meeting,” Ülger explained.

Erdoğan has also consistently highlighted the Gaza conflict. “Although Israel targeted Hamas’s negotiating team by attacking Doha, efforts to achieve a ceasefire continue behind the scenes. Erdoğan, along with leaders of Muslim countries and in the presence of Trump, discussed the possibility of a ceasefire on Tuesday. Achieving consensus here is crucial for Türkiye’s international influence,” Ülger said.

Türkiye is also pushing for a revival of the two-state solution. “The two-state solution is referenced in numerous UN resolutions, such as Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, envisioning Israel returning to its 1967 borders and establishing a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Recognition of the State of Palestine has risen to 178 countries and may increase further. Türkiye’s contributions toward ending the conflict and reviving the peace process are extraordinary,” he added.

NATO and Russia

Erdoğan’s visit carries implications for NATO and Türkiye’s relations with Russia. “Türkiye is the most powerful NATO country after the US in terms of military and land forces. There is growing resistance within NATO against American patronage, and Türkiye has often acted independently to defend its national interests,” Ülger said.

In Ukraine, Türkiye and Russia have cooperated to limit the conflict’s impact, through corridor agreements and prisoner exchanges, although substantive issues remain unresolved. “Türkiye did not join Western sanctions, and its trade with Russia has doubled or tripled. While Türkiye and Russia are often in conflict in Syria, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, dialogue remains essential. Erdoğan-Putin leadership diplomacy has proven effective in resolving deadlocks, as seen in the Syrian context with Iran also involved,” Ülger explained.

Looking ahead, Ülger suggests that while the Trump administration may eventually revert to traditional US policies in support of Ukraine, Erdoğan’s diplomacy with Russia could prevent escalation. “Progress can be made through bilateral dialogue, and leader-to-leader engagement can limit conflict escalation. NATO’s collective and proactive action, combined with Erdoğan-Putin dialogue, could play a key role in shaping regional stability,” he concluded.